Assembly Election Exit Polls: How To Read And Guess Them

Voting in 54 seats, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi, will be held on Monday to decide the phase of 613 candidates for the seventh and final phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.

There is a combined voter turnout of 18.3 crore in the ongoing Legislative Assembly elections, one of the largest turnout amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

What are exit polls?

Exit Poll is the opinion of the voters which is taken by the voters after casting their vote. The purpose of polling is to predict the final result on the basis of information collected from voters outside the polling stations. Pollsters usually ask questions about which political party they would have voted for and the reason behind choosing a particular party.

Pollsters, on the basis of the information gathered, will try to understand the political trends that give a fair idea of ​​how sections of the people voted and on what basis they exercised their franchise.

Exit polls in India are usually conducted by private firms and media organizations like Chanakya, Cvoter MyAxis India. These polling firms deploy polling agents on polling day and collect information through random selection of voters, commonly known as random sampling.

How should we estimate exit polls?

According to experts, exit poll figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. They should not be accepted or rejected in totality. Although this assumption is based on science, there are many factors that govern the outcome of exit polls. A voter may not correctly say which party he has voted for. So there is an accepted margin or error.

Exit polls are usually broadcast on media channels after the completion of all phases of elections. They have been barred from carrying out exit poll results during voting.