Form of words:
MAfter reiterating the 2003 ceasefire agreement between the armies of India and Pakistan, peace has been maintained along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. Although the local population widely welcomed the February 2021 agreement, patience and wait-and-watch tactics on both sides are keeping the guns from roaring. But, how long will the patience last?
This month, the General Officer Commanding of 15 Corps in Srinagar confidently pointed out that guns along the Line of Control between India and Pakistan had been silent since the reiteration of the ceasefire agreement in February 2021. “Conflict violations have not increased. this year there has been none [ceasefire violation]. At least in the Kashmir Valley it has become zero…” Gen. informed the media On 20 September 2021, clearly stating that, “There has been no cross-border provocation.”
Hours after the general’s statement came to light, there was a flurry of activities, including suspension of internet and mobile services, in the wake of an infiltration attempt in the Uri border area along the Line of Control. Three infiltrators were killed in the search operation that lasted for three to four days. Five AK-47 rifles, eight pistols and 70 grenades recovered from the slain terrorists. This was the second infiltration attempt in the Uri sector in a week. With no success, an operation was launched on 19 September to deal with the six infiltrators who had actually crossed the border.
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Top Army officials called the infiltration attempts a change in Pakistan’s behaviour. It appears that while speaking to the media on 23 September, General Pandey redefined the earlier assessment. He said“It is not possible that such a number of activities could have taken place without the connivance and connivance of the local Pak Army Commanders.” “The current level of peace and stability, tourist influx, in fact a large number of ministers visiting the Valley… is shocking… there is an intention to send small arms in the form of pistols and grenades,” he said. To ensure that you are giving weapons to the so called hybrid terrorist, the youth who are studying in the day and evening are given the task of hitting them.
On September 26, for the first time since the agreement in February, guns were roaring in the Titwal sector along the LoC. news report suggested that there was a brief exchange of gunfire between the armies of India and Pakistan. RPGs, 60 mm mortar shells, Pikas and HMGs were fired for about 10 minutes, breaking the seven-month silence.
According to the home ministryFrom 2010 to February 2021, there were 14,000 firing and ceasefire violations along the Line of Control and International Border between India and Pakistan. This year saw a tremendous drop in ceasefire violations – last year, 4,645 and this year almost 592 – brought together. Greater sense of relief for soldiers and frontline population on both sides.
Many domestic and international observers saw the February 2021 agreement as one of several steps that could lead to tensions between India and Pakistan. report suggested That the resumption of high commissioners, the holding of a SAARC summit in Pakistan, was to be a diplomatic upgrade, and that the resumption of trade ties could normalize relations between the two countries. Due to domestic pressures, Pakistan’s government and military laid out conditions for improving bilateral relations – mainly the repeal of some decisions taken on 5 August 2019. Moreover, the government did not appear to be on the same page on opening up of trade between the two countries. Pakistan’s cabinet rejected the proposal To import cotton and sugar from India – an initiative approved by Imran Khan in the role of commerce minister and later postponed due to backlash within the cabinet.
The two countries failed to go ahead with the February 2021 ceasefire agreement. India, which is in a stronger position than J&K, had no incentive to comply with Pakistan’s demand. In short, given its dominant position in the equation, India has no concessions to extend to Pakistan. Similarly, domestic pressure in Pakistan, especially from civilians, had no merit in continuing backchannel diplomacy without a bargain from New Delhi.
Although both countries had an incentive to keep the borders silent, recent events along the Line of Control show that such incentives have lost their longevity. For India, easing tensions on the Western Front while dealing with the crisis with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) arguably stymied the ceasefire agreement. Similarly, the developing Afghan situation made it fruitful for the Pakistan Army on the LoC.
The situation in Afghanistan worked well in favor of Pakistan and the possibility of chaos in Kabul has subsided after the US withdrawal. As a result, except for the threat posed by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Pakistan has little pressure on its western borders with Afghanistan. India’s concerns, especially the crisis on the LAC, continue. On top of this, the repercussions of the situation in Afghanistan have further complicated security dynamics while reducing the threat of cross-border extremism.
For India, continuing the ceasefire along the border may not come at the cost of allowing infiltration and smuggling of arms and narcotics across the Line of Control. The exchange of bullets comes as a deterrent to infiltration attempts by raising costs for Pakistani military posts along the de facto border.
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However, the events of September 2021 have brought the continuation of a renewed ceasefire agreement to the brink. According to estimates, if the infiltration attempts from across the border continue, the patience of the Indian Army will be weakened. It will, as an established strategy, fire at Pakistani military posts in areas where infiltration attempts have been made.
Recent Statement Efforts by Imran Khan at the UN suggest a renewed effort to signal to the West that Pakistan does not see the prospect of a deterioration in bilateral ties between the two countries. At the United Nations General Assembly, Imran Khan said, “Last February, we reaffirmed the 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control. It was expected that this would lead to a rethink of strategy in New Delhi. Sadly, the BJP government did not Repression in Kashmir has intensified and these barbaric acts continue to degrade the environment.The onus remains on India to create a conducive environment for meaningful and result-oriented engagement with Pakistan.
The recent infiltration attempts and firing along the border go hand in hand with the statements of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. It is only a matter of time when the guns on the LoC will start roaring again, crushing another moment of hope for the local population.
Khalid Shah @khalidbshah is Associate Fellow at ORF. His research focuses on the Kashmir conflict, Pakistan and terrorism. Thoughts are personal.
Article originally appeared On the Observer Research Foundation website. It is published with permission.
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