There is no need for India to rush on Kabul. Look at Russia, China, Iran Pakistan’s control over Taliban

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TeaThe withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan exposes India to heightened security threats from China and Pakistan. Our point of vulnerability has always been Jammu and Kashmir, in which both China and Pakistan have fought and whose complicity has always been an expected contingency. Let us outline a possible scenario in view of the recent developments in Afghanistan.

cost of empire

If Afghanistan achieves relative, if monotonous, stability under the Taliban, it is China that will gain greater strategic depth rather than Pakistan. This would help Beijing consolidate its dominance in Central Asia, succeeding in the possession of Soviet Central Asia. This, either Chinese hope, could provide a safeguard for vast areas of Xinjiang and Tibet, where ethnic and religious identities have not been extinguished and threats from both externally motivated and internally generated threats predominate. There is likely to be a Chinese version of the Af-Pak strategy as the two theaters are now intertwined. The Pakistanis have ensured this. The prism through which China or other regional actors look at Afghanistan will now have an indivisible Pakistan dimension.

By projecting that it is the most influential actor in Kabul and that its new ruler is its patron, Pakistan may now have to shoulder its responsibility for Afghan political stability and cleaning up the country’s terror-generating machines under various labels. It will no longer be possible to distance ourselves from the evils of the Taliban.

China already impatient with Pakistan’s failure To protect Its employees working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. This impatience may soon extend to the safety of its personnel in Afghanistan, where Beijing’s economic profile is set to expand. Russians and Iranians, as well as other Central Asian republics bordering Afghanistan, will have similar hopes as Pakistan is currently playing its role as sponsor and guarantor of Afghanistan under the new regime. It is in India’s interest to highlight this self-proclaimed Pakistani role rather than oppose it because ultimately, instead of increasing Pakistan’s influence in the region, it could become a significant pressure point.

Read also: The ‘existence crisis’ in Afghanistan is being felt by those who were left out to the Taliban

There is a doubt that Pakistan will be able to manage the complex and corrupt politics and society in Afghanistan more than it is able to do within Pakistan itself. If China were to expand its role in both Pakistan and Afghanistan to compensate for Islamabad’s inability to defend China’s interests, the “cemetery of empires” could well upset China. Not inevitable but possible.

The wages of expanded empires are not limited to Americans. The argument for empire expansion is, equally, not an American or Western monopoly. So the Chinese will have to expand their empire into Afghanistan because it is in the logic of their expanding and expanding interests. If they are stopped in this regard, the ambitions may be exposed at some stage. No stable position is possible in empire-building or its dissolution. Each expanded set of commitments inevitably leads to an even more ambitious set of commitments. It may well be wrapped in “Chinese characteristics”, but the essence will be the same as it has been throughout the history of empires.

Read also: Taliban leaders like Mullah Baradar have no real interest in Kashmir

Pakistan on a decoupling

One marker of the change in the geopolitical climate since the turn of events in Afghanistan is that the old Sino-US unwritten agreement on maintaining Pakistan as a major regional and even global actor has been completely eroded. If not, it is severely weakened. The importance of this change should be appreciated.

Whatever the sharp differences between China and the US since the 1960s, support for Pakistan was a common objective. China never objected to US military support to Pakistan. In 1971, during the Bangladesh War, it formed a virtual alliance with the US to defend undivided Pakistan. This joint commitment to Pakistan’s security and economic viability continued thereafter, though it may have begun to dwindle over the course of the last decade. US President Joe Biden has not taken any decision yet Call From Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. China may now have sole proprietorship over Pakistan and this may prove to be a mixed blessing. Instead of facing a permanent US-China pact on Pakistan, at least the US component would have been alienated and that is to India’s advantage. This leads to the dissolution of India from Pakistan to the US-Pakistan, and the last thing we must do is revive the India-Pakistan “coupling” due to domestic political calculations.

Viewed from this long-term perspective, the outlook for India may not be as gloomy as it may seem now. Emphasizing his symbiotic relationship with the Taliban, rather than countering Pakistani entanglement with Afghanistan, it may be worthwhile to leverage his own claim to be the most influential actor in Kabul. India must hold Pakistan accountable for the good conduct of its security personnel, thereby preventing the country from becoming a haven for various Islamic Jihadi groups and their threats to its neighbours. And, in turn, blame the Chinese for the good behavior of their “iron brothers”.

Read also: It is America that is tied up in Afghanistan, helps India to deal with Pakistan’s problem in a better way.

wait it out

India is in a critical situation at the moment. Cross-border terrorism is likely to accelerate as various jihadist groups get a psychological boost from the Taliban victory in Afghanistan. We must expand the resources dedicated to our defense and counter-terrorism capabilities. Recognizing that Jammu and Kashmir is likely to be the frontline in this changed security environment, there is an urgent need to restore the democratic political process in the Union Territory, remove alienation among its youth and revive its battered economy. Is.

There is no hurry to decide on our stand towards the new government in Kabul. Let us sit back and wait for the very fluid situation in the country to evolve towards some degree of clarity and stability. We must allow regional giants like Iran, Russia and China to accept Pakistan’s central role in bringing the Taliban to power. Our diplomacy should be geared towards paying full attention to Pakistan’s responsibility in keeping Afghanistan free of terrorist camps and safe havens and, by extension, China’s responsibility for the conduct of the Pakistani elite. Instead of accepting, as some believe, that the Taliban has nationalist credentials, we should do the opposite. And wait for the turtle’s turn.

Shyam Saran is a former Foreign Secretary and Senior Fellow CPR. Thoughts are personal.

(Edited by Neera Mazumdar)

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