New Delhi: retail inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of September declined to 4.35 per cent as against 5.3 per cent recorded in August, showed data released by the government on Tuesday.
The moderation in inflation data is mainly on account of moderation in food prices which offset the increase in crude oil and fuel costs.
Inflation numbers remained in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort zone for the third consecutive month.
The RBI primarily factors in retail inflation while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been tasked by the government to control retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4 per cent (+,-2 per cent).
RBI’s forecast on inflation
In its October bi-monthly monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast a substantial moderation in retail inflation in the near-term on account of easing food prices and a favorable base effect.
Accordingly, it projected CPI-based inflation at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22, with risks evenly balanced.
This is lower than the 5.7 per cent inflation projected in the August policy meeting.
On a quarterly basis, the CPI for Q2 is estimated at 5.1 percent: 4.5 percent in Q3 and 5.8 percent in Q4. CPI inflation for the first quarter of 2022-23 is estimated at 5.2 per cent.
What did the RBI governor say?
Announcing the policy outcome, central bank governor Shaktikanta Das had said headline inflation is being significantly impacted by high inflation in select items such as edible oil, petrol and diesel, LPG and medicines.
Das had said, “With the moderation in food prices, the CPI headline is losing momentum, which, coupled with favorable base effects, could lead to a substantial moderation in inflation in the short term.”
According to him, improving monsoon in September, expected higher kharif production, adequate buffer stock of food grains and less seasonal uptick in vegetable prices are likely to keep food prices under pressure.
(with inputs from agencies)
The moderation in inflation data is mainly on account of moderation in food prices which offset the increase in crude oil and fuel costs.
Inflation numbers remained in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort zone for the third consecutive month.
The RBI primarily factors in retail inflation while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been tasked by the government to control retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4 per cent (+,-2 per cent).
RBI’s forecast on inflation
In its October bi-monthly monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast a substantial moderation in retail inflation in the near-term on account of easing food prices and a favorable base effect.
Accordingly, it projected CPI-based inflation at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22, with risks evenly balanced.
This is lower than the 5.7 per cent inflation projected in the August policy meeting.
On a quarterly basis, the CPI for Q2 is estimated at 5.1 percent: 4.5 percent in Q3 and 5.8 percent in Q4. CPI inflation for the first quarter of 2022-23 is estimated at 5.2 per cent.
What did the RBI governor say?
Announcing the policy outcome, central bank governor Shaktikanta Das had said headline inflation is being significantly impacted by high inflation in select items such as edible oil, petrol and diesel, LPG and medicines.
Das had said, “With the moderation in food prices, the CPI headline is losing momentum, which, coupled with favorable base effects, could lead to a substantial moderation in inflation in the short term.”
According to him, improving monsoon in September, expected higher kharif production, adequate buffer stock of food grains and less seasonal uptick in vegetable prices are likely to keep food prices under pressure.
(with inputs from agencies)
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