Moscow: 70 years old, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in the eye of a storm of his own making: his army suffers a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Millions of Russians are fleeing his mobilization order, and his top lieutenants are publicly insulting military leaders.
Maneuver with your room for narrowness, putin has repeatedly indicated that it may resort to nuclear weapons to defend itself Russian advantage in Ukraine – a terrifying threat that shatters claims of stability that he has repeated in his 22-year rule.
“It’s a really tough moment for him, but he can’t blame anyone else. He did it himself,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “And that’s going straight to bigger, bigger problems.”
freeing the destroyer war in ukraineEurope’s largest military conflict since World War II, Putin broke an unwritten social contract in which the Russians tacitly agreed to renounce post-Soviet political independence in exchange for relative prosperity and internal stability.
Journalist Mikhail Zyger, who has extensive contacts with the Kremlin elite and published a bestselling book about Putin and his entourage, said the attack came as a complete surprise not only to the public but to Putin’s closest allies .
“They’re all in shock,” Zaiger said. “None of them wanted to see events unfold like this, because they are about to lose everything. Now they are all covered in blood, and they all think they have nowhere to run.”
Stanisaw Belkovsky, a longtime political adviser with extensive contacts among the ruling class, described the invasion as a mechanism of “self-destruction for Putin, his regime and the Russian Federation”.
With Russian forces retreating under attack from Western-armed Ukrainian forces, Putin raised the stakes by capturing four Ukrainian territories and announcing a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists to suppress the crumbling frontline.
Poorly organized call-ups have led to widespread chaos. The military is struggling to provide supplies for new recruits, many of whom were told to buy medical kits and other basics themselves and were left to sleep on the floor while waiting to be sent to the front. was.
Discussions are taking place in social networks about how to avoid recruiting, and hundreds of thousands of men have fled in mobilization, besieging Russia’s borders with former Soviet neighbors.
Kolesnikov said the mobilization had eroded Putin’s core support base and set the stage for potential political upheaval. “After the partial mobilization, it is impossible to convince anyone that they stabilized the system. They disrupted the foundation of stability,” he said.
The military failures also led to public outrage from some of Putin’s top lieutenants directed toward military leaders. The Kremlin has done nothing to stop the criticism, a sign that Putin may use it to set the stage for a major blow to the top brass and blame them for the defeat.
“A fight between powerful factions in Putin’s party could destabilize the system and significantly undermine Putin’s control over the situation in the country,” Belkowski said.
The widespread upheaval marks a dramatic contrast with Putin’s image of stability since taking power in 2000. He has repeatedly described the turbulent regime of his predecessor Boris Yeltsin as a time of decay, when national wealth was stolen by tycoons affiliated with the Kremlin. and the West while millions of people were mired in poverty.
Russia has eagerly accepted Putin’s promises to restore his country’s splendor amid oil-driven economic prosperity, and has remained largely indifferent to the Kremlin’s relentless crackdown on political freedom.
Insiders who have closely studied Putin’s thinking say they still believe he can emerge as a winner.
Belkovsky argued that Putin hopes to win by using energy as a means of pressure. By reducing gas flow to Europe and a deal with OPEC to curtail oil production, he could push up prices and increase pressure on the US and its allies.
Belkovsky said Putin wants the West to quietly accept the current status quo in Ukraine, resume energy cooperation with Russia, lift the most severe sanctions and free Russian assets.
“He is still confident that he will make his way into the long-standing conflict with the West, where the situation on the Ukrainian front is just an important one, but not a decisive one,” Belkovsky said.
At the same time, Putin threatened to use ‘all available means’ to defend newly occupied Ukrainian territories in a blunt attempt to force Ukraine and its Western allies to retreat.
America and its allies have said that they are taking Putin’s threat Seriously but they wouldn’t describe it as blackmail to force the West to leave Ukraine. Ukraine has vowed to retaliate despite Russian rhetoric.
Kolesnikov described Putin’s nuclear threats as a reflection of growing desperation.
“It is the last step for them in the sense that it is a suicide,” Kolesnikov said. “If he is ready to step in, it means we are looking at a dictator who is worse than Stalin.”
Some observers have argued that NATO could attack Russia with conventional weapons if Putin presses the nuclear button.
Belkovsky warned that Putin firmly believes that the US and its allies will not dare to strike back if Russia uses a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
“If America thinks it is not psychologically prepared, it is wrong,” he said.
Zyger likens the Russian leader to a fighter pilot who tries to win a dogfight by attacking the enemy head-on and waiting for him to retreat first.
“He thinks he has the nerve, and believes he should go on until the end,” Zaiger said.
He said pundits failed to predict Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the current invasion because they were using rational criteria.
“Our previous assumptions about rational limits have all been proven false” he said. “There is no such limit.”
Maneuver with your room for narrowness, putin has repeatedly indicated that it may resort to nuclear weapons to defend itself Russian advantage in Ukraine – a terrifying threat that shatters claims of stability that he has repeated in his 22-year rule.
“It’s a really tough moment for him, but he can’t blame anyone else. He did it himself,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “And that’s going straight to bigger, bigger problems.”
freeing the destroyer war in ukraineEurope’s largest military conflict since World War II, Putin broke an unwritten social contract in which the Russians tacitly agreed to renounce post-Soviet political independence in exchange for relative prosperity and internal stability.
Journalist Mikhail Zyger, who has extensive contacts with the Kremlin elite and published a bestselling book about Putin and his entourage, said the attack came as a complete surprise not only to the public but to Putin’s closest allies .
“They’re all in shock,” Zaiger said. “None of them wanted to see events unfold like this, because they are about to lose everything. Now they are all covered in blood, and they all think they have nowhere to run.”
Stanisaw Belkovsky, a longtime political adviser with extensive contacts among the ruling class, described the invasion as a mechanism of “self-destruction for Putin, his regime and the Russian Federation”.
With Russian forces retreating under attack from Western-armed Ukrainian forces, Putin raised the stakes by capturing four Ukrainian territories and announcing a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists to suppress the crumbling frontline.
Poorly organized call-ups have led to widespread chaos. The military is struggling to provide supplies for new recruits, many of whom were told to buy medical kits and other basics themselves and were left to sleep on the floor while waiting to be sent to the front. was.
Discussions are taking place in social networks about how to avoid recruiting, and hundreds of thousands of men have fled in mobilization, besieging Russia’s borders with former Soviet neighbors.
Kolesnikov said the mobilization had eroded Putin’s core support base and set the stage for potential political upheaval. “After the partial mobilization, it is impossible to convince anyone that they stabilized the system. They disrupted the foundation of stability,” he said.
The military failures also led to public outrage from some of Putin’s top lieutenants directed toward military leaders. The Kremlin has done nothing to stop the criticism, a sign that Putin may use it to set the stage for a major blow to the top brass and blame them for the defeat.
“A fight between powerful factions in Putin’s party could destabilize the system and significantly undermine Putin’s control over the situation in the country,” Belkowski said.
The widespread upheaval marks a dramatic contrast with Putin’s image of stability since taking power in 2000. He has repeatedly described the turbulent regime of his predecessor Boris Yeltsin as a time of decay, when national wealth was stolen by tycoons affiliated with the Kremlin. and the West while millions of people were mired in poverty.
Russia has eagerly accepted Putin’s promises to restore his country’s splendor amid oil-driven economic prosperity, and has remained largely indifferent to the Kremlin’s relentless crackdown on political freedom.
Insiders who have closely studied Putin’s thinking say they still believe he can emerge as a winner.
Belkovsky argued that Putin hopes to win by using energy as a means of pressure. By reducing gas flow to Europe and a deal with OPEC to curtail oil production, he could push up prices and increase pressure on the US and its allies.
Belkovsky said Putin wants the West to quietly accept the current status quo in Ukraine, resume energy cooperation with Russia, lift the most severe sanctions and free Russian assets.
“He is still confident that he will make his way into the long-standing conflict with the West, where the situation on the Ukrainian front is just an important one, but not a decisive one,” Belkovsky said.
At the same time, Putin threatened to use ‘all available means’ to defend newly occupied Ukrainian territories in a blunt attempt to force Ukraine and its Western allies to retreat.
America and its allies have said that they are taking Putin’s threat Seriously but they wouldn’t describe it as blackmail to force the West to leave Ukraine. Ukraine has vowed to retaliate despite Russian rhetoric.
Kolesnikov described Putin’s nuclear threats as a reflection of growing desperation.
“It is the last step for them in the sense that it is a suicide,” Kolesnikov said. “If he is ready to step in, it means we are looking at a dictator who is worse than Stalin.”
Some observers have argued that NATO could attack Russia with conventional weapons if Putin presses the nuclear button.
Belkovsky warned that Putin firmly believes that the US and its allies will not dare to strike back if Russia uses a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
“If America thinks it is not psychologically prepared, it is wrong,” he said.
Zyger likens the Russian leader to a fighter pilot who tries to win a dogfight by attacking the enemy head-on and waiting for him to retreat first.
“He thinks he has the nerve, and believes he should go on until the end,” Zaiger said.
He said pundits failed to predict Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the current invasion because they were using rational criteria.
“Our previous assumptions about rational limits have all been proven false” he said. “There is no such limit.”