a few months before the assembly electionsThe ruling Congress in Rajasthan is facing internal rebellion. Party leader Sachin Pilot has again intensified his campaign to replace Ashok Gehlot as the Chief Minister. Mr Gehlot is in no mood to budge, and the party’s MLAs are largely on his side. Mr Pilot was the state party chief during the 2018 election and was expected to become the chief minister if the Congress won. This did not happen, and Mr. Pilot rose to the post of Deputy Chief Minister while remaining party chief. In July 2020, he openly rebelled, demanding the top post for himself. It ended very badly for him – he lost both the posts, while Mr Gehlot consolidated his hold on the party and the government in the process. Last year, Mr Gehlot emerged as the unanimous candidate for the post of Congress president, rekindling Mr Pilot’s hopes of succeeding him in Rajasthan. But Congress legislators in Rajasthan rebelled, this time against the move to install Mr Pilot as chief minister. In the end, Mr. Gehlot remained the Chief Minister and Mallikarjun Kharge became the President of the party. Mr. Pilot is trying his luck again by putting pressure on the party and Mr. Gehlot.
Shri Gehlot is an experienced and astute politician with his ear to the ground. They have built a political narrative around new approaches to welfare and social justice, in the process trying to make themselves seem irreplaceable. Mr. Gehlot has worked to increase his popularity through compassionate management of the pandemic, measures to reduce the impact of price increases and, most recently, a new law that expands access to health care. Whether all this will garner Congress votes remains to be seen. However, a change at the top at the eleventh hour is more likely to damage the party’s prospects. The Congress need look no further than its most recent disaster in Punjab in 2021, where it underwent a change at the top on the eve of assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party is not quite ready for war, the Congress can hope to win a second consecutive term in Rajasthan, if it can get its house in order. At 45, Mr Pilot has age, and he may be persuaded to shift his ambitions accordingly. Mr. Gehlot must show foresight, Mr. Pilot patience and high command leadership to take Congress forward in Rajasthan. As the election approaches, the situation may get worse before it gets better. High stakes may lead one or the other to overplay their hand.