hAs the Karnataka assembly election results make things bright for the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? Will Bihar CM Nitish Kumar try to bring West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao, who are critics In the court of Congress, Rahul Gandhi?
Voters seem to have applauded the Congress, but the election was close Contested election As the average victory margin was 9 percent of the total votes polled, according to Hindustan Times, What does it mean? There is no big ‘Congress wave’ in the state.
If you consider the factors of caste and religion, there is no ‘pro-Congress’ change in the narrative. The Lingayats, who enabled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to make inroads in the state, voted for the Congress because of a poor campaign by BS Yeddyurappa. The Congress ate into the Vokkaliga voters of the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S), who had been loyal to the Gowda family for decades. Muslim voters also walked out of JD(S) and swung in favor of Congress.
Read also: Karnataka Elections 2023 – Eight Lessons for the BJP, the Congress and India as a whole
the other side of the coin
The Karnataka assembly elections show no signs of weakening of the BJP at the national level. See what happened on the same day in UP – Yogi Adityanath in a way set up the ‘third engine’ Government After winning all the 17 seats for the post of mayor in the urban local body elections in the state. CM’smix in soil (reduction in dust)” remarks, which he made in February against the mafia culture in the state, became wildly popular and swayed popular opinion in his favour.
Municipal election results show BJP’s strength in UP, the state with maximum representation in Lok Sabha elections. Yogi is still standing.
As of now, the Samajwadi Party appears to be the only strong opposition to the BJP in UP. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has clearly weakened – there is no doubt about it. It can be argued that the irrelevance of the BSP helps the BJP more. Of course, there is a long and uphill battle ahead for the Congress in UP.
In short, UP is still a stronghold of the BJP. From civic polls to bypolls, the Congress has little support to boast about. On May 13, Apna Dal (S), an ally of the BJP, won the Swar assembly seat in Rampur.
Read also: BJP replaced Yeddyurappa with Bommai, but he was not the bold, pragmatic leader they needed
Internal cracks in Congress
Coming to the specifics of the situation, a stalemate is dangerous for any government. There is no road-roller majority for the Congress in Karnataka. Such a decision always opens the doors for another Operation Lotus – not by the BJP, though, but within the Congress itself. The leaders who worked hard for the Congress victory in Karnataka have not been rewarded. One thinks of Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. Given how the party is grappling with internal rifts, can the Congress forge an alliance against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024?
Will Congress leaders now demand that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra be made the party president? He conquered Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. More than Rahul Gandhi, it is Priyanka who ran a vigorous campaign and this is being appreciated in Karnataka. Where is party president Mallikarjun Kharge, who worked hard even in his home turf Karnataka, but is now eclipsed? Suddenly Hanuman has become a favorite deity in Karnataka and the north. Even as the results were announced, Priyanka was offering prayers at the Jakhu Hanuman temple in Shimla.
Moreover, the anti-incumbency wave being an innate nature of Karnataka politics is not unique to the Congress victory this time. No government has returned to power since 1985 Power in the state. Even as celebrations have begun at the Congress office in Bengaluru, the defeat is a blessing in disguise for the BJP – the party will do well in the 2024 general elections.
Read also: Karnataka has shown that no magic is needed to defeat BJP in 2024. The answer is ‘ridiculously easy’
Why Karnataka defeat helps BJP?
See the situation around Karnataka. BJP has a double advantage on both sides of the state.
First, in Maharashtra, where some friction exists between Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, while the Eknath Shinde-led BJP alliance enjoys political clout.
Another advantage comes from the nearby state of Tamil Nadu. MK Stalin’s freebies, which he calls welfare schemes on health and education, have proved difficult to implement as the state government grapples with a financial crunch. CM in March 2023 Said that the state cannot pay Rs 1,000 per month to women heads of households – which the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) had promised in its manifesto – due to paucity of funds.
Back in Karnataka, Lingayats and Vokkaligas have divergent interests. The Congress has to ensure a balance in representing these two groups along with Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Muslims. Such a complex political game could land the party in trouble just a year before the next general election.
The potential rift among voters will work in favor of the BJP. With his Hindutva slogan, PM Modi will be able to woo voters with a ‘Sabka Vikas’ model, which will not only counter the freebie syndrome but also re-dominate politics.
The author tweets at @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Hamra Like)