Sea levels around parts of New Zealand are rising twice as fast as previously thought, putting the country’s two biggest cities at risk decades earlier than expected, according to research published on Monday. Government-backed data collected from the country’s coastline found that some areas are already sinking three to four millimeters per year, increasing the long-expected threat. The estimates, labeled “a bit terrifying” by one expert, are the result of an extensive five-year, government-funded research program – NZ SeaRise – that was the joint work of dozens of local and international scientists.
Their forecast means officials have little time to start rolling out climate adaptation plans, including relocating coastal communities.
NZ SeaRise co-leader Tim Naish, a professor at Victoria University in Wellington, said while global sea level is expected to rise by about half a meter by 2100, it could be closer to a meter for substantial parts of New Zealand as land sinking at the same time.
That’s big news for the capital, Wellington, which can expect up to 30 centimeters of sea level rise by 2040 – a level not expected before 2060.
With that rate of increase, Wellington residents can expect an average of one-century flood damage each year.
Naish said, “We have less time to act. You will sooner see the devastating effects of sea-level rise than we thought. Roads and properties will be submerged.”
“Yeah, it’s a little scary but there’s still time and I think that’s the way to look at it.”
The data shows that the southeast coast of the more populous North Island is most exposed, but many seaside communities and cities will be affected.
Auckland, which is comfortably the largest city in the country with 1.7 million residents, is particularly vulnerable.
It is predicted that sea levels will rise 50 percent faster in the city’s downtown waterfront and several central-city suburbs, with wide-ranging effects on home prices and insurance rates.
NZ SeaRise has developed an online tool for residents and officials to check forecasts for their own coast – allowing them to assess the risk of flooding and erosion.
“We still have time, but we don’t have time to sit on our hands anymore,” Naish said.
“If you are a council representative or you are a developer, or you are a decision-maker in the coastal areas of New Zealand, you need to start thinking now about what the plan is for sea level rise.”
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said adaptation plans were already underway, including budgeting to rehabilitate some communities and infrastructure away from vulnerable beaches.
“The first port of call is not necessarily a managed retreat because there are many options that can be used,” she told Radio New Zealand.
“We’re working with local government and insurance companies to work through some of these options as a cost bearer. The costs that need to be covered will not fall on any one party.”
Ardern said New Zealanders should not accept that sea level rise is more inevitable than predicted for the near term and that every citizen should do everything possible to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. should do.
Global sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of the ocean, melting of land-based glaciers, and melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
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