First round of French presidential election Sunday showed that the country’s political landscape, once dominated by traditional social democratic and conservative parties, has shifted in a more polarized direction. While incumbent President Emmanuel Macron topped with 27.8% of the vote, right-wing anti-immigrant leader Marine Le Pen came second with 23.1%. The Conservative and Socialist parties – with a combined 6.7% of the vote – broke down – while far-right and left-wing candidates won by more than half the vote. The run-off, on 24 April, will determine who will lead the EU’s second-largest economy. Opinion polls suggest the race won’t be easy for Mr Macron as Ms Le Pen, whose popularity stood at 16% in February, has gained a lot of ground. If in 2017, Mr Macron defeated Ms Le Pen by a margin of 32 percentage points in the run-off, her lead is now between two and six points. While outrage over inflation and rising costs of living is high, Le Pen is offering a cocktail of harsh nationalism and anti-incumbency politics to win over disaffected voters without losing her far-right base.
Five years ago, behind Mr Macron, there was massive unification among voters across the political spectrum, often referred to as the ‘Republican Front’. They wanted to defeat the dangerous politics of Ms. Le Pen, which they believed to be against French republican values. The biggest challenge before them today is to maintain this alliance while facing a more powerful opponent. Leaders from conservative and left parties have backed Mr Macron for the run-off, but it is unclear whether his voters will follow suit, given the ongoing political changes. In 2017, Mr Macron had a new face – an outsider with a liberal, progressive heart. But as president, his pro-business policies have alienated left-wing voters, who supported Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round. Mr Macron’s decision to close some mosques and crack down on religious organizations has also caused a rift in the social coalition that supported him in 2017. Ms Le Pen, already run by immigrant hardline nationalists, is trying to win. Anti-capitalist voters are angry with Mr. Macron. He has also considered the Ukraine war with a keen eye. While she has condemned it, she criticizes the sanctions, which Mr Macron backed in coordination with the EU and the US, arguing that the sanctions are hurting French consumers. It also wants to expel French soldiers from the military command of NATO. Le Pen’s victory would change the character of French politics and challenge the joint efforts of the EU and NATO in opposing Putin’s war on Ukraine. It is this prospect that makes April 24 one of the most resultant presidential elections in France in decades.