A rebellion that could turn into a revolution in Sri Lanka

The Great People’s Rebellion has overthrown an authoritarian president in Sri Lanka, but it has not abolished the office of the working president. Indeed, within a few days of taking over as the acting President on 18 July, Ranil Wickremesinghe declares emergencyIt is believed to ensure the safety of lawmakers who voted for the president on 20 July.

a new social contract

This kind of executive redundancy has been the bane of problems in Sri Lanka. In the last four decades, no better opportunity has come to free the country from this undemocratic institution. Why then are liberal reformers and lawmakers so reluctant to move to abolish the acting presidency? This is because the office of the Executive Chairman is being projected as the custodian of law, order and property in these turbulent times. Sri Lanka is in a great moment of rebellionBut it is far from a revolution, because a revolution would require a change in our fundamental social relations, including property relations. Nevertheless, a revolutionary consciousness is emerging among the masses, who are protesting in the streets and occupying the highest positions of the state.

Such power of the people has upset the liberal class and international actors who are quick to warn of anarchy, anarchy and destruction of property. In fact, the struggle of the people may extend to demands for the possession and redistribution of private property. However, during several months of the crisis, the government and opposition in parliament have avoided discussing redistribution. They cannot even afford more direct taxes, let alone wealth tax. Instead, their energies go into begging international donors for money and pushing the country further into debt.

This dynamic only comes into play when the liberal political establishment, determined to maintain the neoliberal economic status quo, begins to back down on the constitutionality of the political process. Have the very foundations of our political system been shaken by the largest protests in the history of Sri Lanka? This is a moment when the social contract between the state and society must be reconstructed. Without a new social contract, there is likely to be unrelenting conflict with the working people.

factors for political survival

In the last four months every moment parliamentary moves have weakened the protest and tried to distract the people’s protest. But those maneuvers – whether it was the resignation of cabinet ministers in April, the appointment of Mr Wickremesinghe as prime minister in May, or an attempt to pass a watered-down amendment to the acting chairman’s post in June – have ultimately faced the public’s dismay. Agitation. Similar dynamics are going to be in play when Parliament wants to elect the President. Complete Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s term, This time, it is Mr. Wickremesinghe who has come as the epitome of order and protection of the status quo. His self-interest and the interests of some powerful political and global actors make him the front runner for the post of interim president, who will be elected by parliament. After all, it is clear that in a presidential election requiring the support of a popular majority, he would not stand a chance. He could not even win his seat in parliament in the last election and came to parliament only on the lone seat of his United National Party, which suffered a terrible defeat.

Mr. Wickremesinghe lacks the social and political base to lead the country. Having openly supported the country’s most infamous regime, he has no political credibility to speak out or a moral authority. However, his political survival depends on the support of three important constituencies. First, Rajapaksa and his party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), whose social base has been eroded with widespread opposition to his rule. The party now desperately needs someone at the helm of state power to protect it. Second, top military officials, whose commanders-in-chief and so-called war heroes have fled the country, while international sanctions discourage some in the military leadership. Third, international actors who want to serve their geopolitical interests in Sri Lanka. This is the biggest threat to the country.

What was considered a ‘political settlement’ between Rajapaksa and Mr Wickremesinghe when he was appointed prime minister has now come out in the open with the SLPP backing his candidacy. Mr. Wickremesinghe will protect Rajapaksa and advance his interests, as he is dependent on his political base, completely corrupting politics.

After this, he needs the army to suppress the opposition as much as the army needs to protect them. This vendetta threatens authoritarian rule through further militarization. As acting chairman last week, Mr. Wickremesinghe issued a gazette notification to include more subjects within the purview of the defense ministry, including the investment board needed for his authoritarian neoliberal project. Apart from the neoliberal policies of eviction, such militarization would take place under his presidency.

And as far as international actors are concerned, Wickremesinghe’s presidency with an authoritarian consistency would suit his interests. A leader whose social and political base does not depend on him will not only sing but dance to his tune and sell the country’s strategic assets for a song.

First as tragedy, then as farce

In Louis Bonaparte’s 18th BrumaireIn , Karl Marx wrote these opening lines about the failed French Revolution of 1848: “Hegel has remarked somewhere that in world history all facts and persons of great importance occur twice. He forgot to add: the first time. As tragedy, the second time as farce.” Marx was referring to the tragedy of Napoleon’s bold capture of state power and then his nephew Louis Bonaparte’s claim to be a similar leader several decades later. In Sri Lanka, JR Jayawardene’s coming to power in 1977, the creation of an executive presidency, the introduction of neoliberal policies, his alignment with the US in the midst of the Cold War, and the repression of organized labor and Tamil minorities culminating in a civil war, was a devastating tragedy. Now, Jayawardene’s nephew Mr. Wickremesinghe has grand ambitions of capturing the presidency, suppressing the people’s movement and taking forward the neoliberal project. It is a farce from every angle. Mr. Wickremesinghe has neither social nor political base of Jayawardene With nationwide protests Neither movement has become more politically aware. And the global neoliberal project itself is now in peril.

Even if Mr. Wickremesinghe is elected, his term will remain controversial, and can only last until the next wave of protests. But it will polarize society, generate a xenophobic backlash against outside actors who support it and destroy people’s economic lives.

Through the maneuvers of those in power, people are being inspired to continue on the path of revolution from rebellion. If state power is brought to serve a class project in the form of Mr. Wickremesinghe, the political crisis will escalate. Who is ready for this bet?

Ahilan Kadirgamar is a Political Economist and Senior Lecturer, University of Jaffna, Sri Lanka.