A Strategic Dam: On the Third India-Central Asia Dialogue

third India-Central Asia Dialogue called by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar Sunday is one of a series of timely connections to the region by New Delhi this year, inspired in part by events in Afghanistan. This comes a month before the leaders of all the five Central Asian Republics (CARs) arrived in New Delhi as chief guests for the Republic Day celebrations and a month after National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had a “regional security dialogue” with his CAR counterparts. Dialogue has been conducted. Discussions on Afghanistan The issues discussed on Sunday included providing “immediate” humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, increasing trade and improving connectivity. It is significant that CAR foreign ministers chose to visit New Delhi, an indicator that India’s access to Central Asia, a region neglected by the South Block for several decades, is being reciprocated. The joint statement, that they share a “comprehensive regional consensus” on Afghanistan, is appropriate given that, like India, all of Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors remain concerned about the threat of terrorism, radicalization, narcotics and refugees. However, unlike India, most CARs hold bilateral talks with the Taliban regime; Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have reopened missions there. Trade between India and Central Asia has long been less than $2 billion and all sides are keen to increase it. In addition, India’s $1 billion line of credit for projects in Central Asia, and connectivity initiatives such as the Chabahar Port, the International North-South Transport Corridor and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas pipelines were all part of the conversation.

While there is a great need to strengthen India-Central Asia ties and the revival of their traditional, historical and cultural ties, it is also important to recognize the geopolitical cross-currents that complicate such efforts. While Russia continues to have influence in CAR governments, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and $100 billion in trade (by some estimates) have made it a central figure in the region. The US is also trying to gain a foothold in the region, especially after Afghanistan. Meanwhile, India’s land connectivity to Central Asia is hampered by Pakistan which has been building strong ties and transit trade agreements with each CAR. The alternative route, via Iran’s Chabahar, has suffered a setback following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, and the development of the Indian-managed Shahid Beheshti terminal is facing the threat of US sanctions. While India has strengthened ties with other parts of Asia, it will now have to redouble its efforts towards Central Asia if it is to counter the ongoing ‘Great Game’ rivalry in the region, and with those countries. Reclaiming shared histories that are an important market, a source of energy, and a safeguard against the threats of extremism and radicalization.