A strategy for India in a world that is unhelpful

New situations require new thinking. Some of us – Yamini Iyer, Sunil Khilnani, Prakash Menon, Nitin Pai, Ajit Ranade, Srinath Raghavan and Shyam Saran – some of whom were writers a decade before Non-Aligned 2.0, were inspired by tectonic changes in India’s interior. And to take another look at India’s path to power in the world amid the external environment orders. the result of our conversation A discussion paper organized on Center for Policy Research and Taxila Institute websites are called India’s path to power; Strategy in One World Adrift. It is our hope that we will receive comments, suggestions and criticisms of this newspaper and that it will contribute to the national debate on the course of our country.

multiple power stations

The world is wandering today. We are neither in a bipolar cold war nor in a multipolar world, though perhaps turning to a world of multiple power centers. We are in a world between orders. The lack of a coherent international response to the COVID-19 pandemic is evidence of the absence of an international order and the ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions. So is the ineffective international response to climate change and other international threats.

Secular stagnation and retreat from globalization in global and Indian economies, regionalization of trade, a shifting balance of power, the rise of China and others, and the structural Sino-USA strategic rivalry shifted geopolitical and economic centers of gravity. have make. Atlantic to Asia. Inequality between and within states has given rise to a narrow nationalism and parochialism. We are entering a new polarized information age, and facing the ecological crises of the Anthropocene, making climate change an existential threat. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered some of these changes and changed others. Overall, we can no longer take the success of our growth model for granted.

Asia as a nucleus

Over the next decade we expect Asia to remain the cockpit of geopolitical rivalry, and that the US will remain the most formidable power, although its relative power is declining. China sees a window of opportunity, but acts hastily, suggesting that it believes the window may be closed or is already closing due to pushback from the West and others. Is. China’s congested geography compels it both on land and at sea. We see a slim prospect of Chinese hegemony in Asia, but expect its profile and power to continue to expand, especially in our periphery. The result is likely to be continued friction between India and China, some cooperation and quasi-adversarial relations, which others will take advantage of. As neighbors and in the current situation, the mix of confrontation and cooperation is likely to continue to characterize India’s relations with China.

Overall, we do not expect traditional conflict between great powers in Asia, although violence and other forms and levels of conflict will increase in the international system, with Taiwan a special case.

challenges, opportunities

The uncertainty and changing geopolitical environment obviously present considerable challenges to Indian policy, but expanding our strategic options and diplomatic space, also throws up some opportunities if we are to do so internally and externally, particularly. Adjust policies in the subcontinent. A growing security agreement with the US could enable increased cooperation in areas critical to India’s transformation: energy, trade, investment, education and health. Other areas in which India and the US can increase cooperation are: on climate change and energy, technological solutions for renewable energy and digital cooperation. Many middle powers are now natural partners of India. There is also an increasing possibility of working with partners in developing countries to form broad coalitions on issues of common interest. This is also a time of transition between orders when new standards and norms are being developed, especially in the digital space. Bharat can and should be present at the time of creation. There are opportunities in other areas as well. At sea, the balance is more favorable for us today than it was before, possibly more so than on the continent. We suggest the creation of a Maritime Commission, the Bay of Bengal Initiative, with partner countries, and enhance what we do with Southeast Asia in maritime security, cyber security and counter-terrorism. We must aim for multipolarity in Asia.

The way we suggest moving forward is based on the core strategic principles in Non-Aligned 2.0 that are still relevant: independent decision-making, developing our capabilities, and creating an equitable and efficient international order for India’s transformation. Today’s situation makes India’s strategic autonomy even more necessary.

At the same time, we have to keep pace with the changing circumstances. We have no choice but to connect with this uncertain and more volatile world. A productive way to do this would be through issue-based alliances involving different actors, depending on who has the interest and ability.

revive saarc

We also suggest initiatives to craft and revitalize regional institutions and processes in the neighbourhood, for example, reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). India can be the primary source of both prosperity and security in the neighborhood – the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean region. The excessive securitization of policy toward our neighbors has driven trade underground, criminalized our borders, and enabled the massive ingress of Chinese goods into the northeast, destroying local industry. Our primary effort is to focus on self-reinforcing, while reducing our dependence on China, and seeking external balance. If there is one country that can match or even surpass China in terms of its size, population, economic potential, scientific and technological capabilities, it is India.

self-power is the key

Our paper also suggests a number of steps we can take in India to ensure that India’s role and influence abroad continues to transform India. Economic policy must be matched by political and strategic engagement. Globalization has been the focus of India’s development. A more active regional and international role for India is incompatible with the marginalized situation in the global economy. In today’s world and technologies, self-reliance can be realized only as a part of the global economy. We must not copy China’s claim that it is a civilized country and chooses to be its victims. Instead we must reaffirm our strength and historical national identity.

In short, we see self-assertion as an extremely necessary precondition and at the same time protecting India’s fundamental sources of international influence. We cannot separate our domestic trajectory from the external path to transform India into a strong, secure and prosperous country.

Shivshankar Menon is a visiting professor at Ashoka University. He is also a former National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary