An avoidable crisis: Nancy Pelosi on a trip to Taiwan

Visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker and veteran Democrat politician, Nancy Pelosihas risked a fourth Taiwan Straits crisis and an alarming escalation amid already deteriorating relations between the world’s two biggest powers. Ms Pelosi is the highest ranked US officials to visit Taiwan in 25 years – The first by a Speaker of the House since Newt Gingrich’s visit in 1997. The visit follows the third Taiwan Straits crisis, when China conducted a missile test in a phone call in response to the visit of then Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to the US. On 28 July, US President Biden sought to reassure his counterpart Xi Jinping that “US policy has not changed”. But this is not the case in Beijing. As China’s foreign ministry put it on August 2, in its view, Washington, going back to the days of the Trump administration, is gradually “hollowing out” its “one China policy”. In the call, Mr Xi warned Biden that “those who play with fire will be destroyed by it” and added that he “hoped the US would be clear about the consequences”. Beijing has responded by announcing military exercises near Taiwan. More counterarguments may follow.

This latest crisis has come at a time when China-US relations are already at their peak. This explains why officials in the Biden administration and the US military also called on Pelosi to reconsider. Ironically, this was likely downplayed by harsh public warnings from China that ensured the visit went ahead because cancellation would have been politically costly for the Biden administration. In this completely avoidable crisis, domestic political considerations are driving both sides to their respective corners. Mr Xi is three months away from the politically sensitive party Congress which will mark the start of his third term. White House officials have said Pelosi represents a different branch of government and that the member of Congress has previously traveled to Taiwan. The visit appears to have been driven primarily by Ms Pelosi, who sharply criticizes China’s policies in Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, rather than the Biden administration, which appears to have reassured Beijing. Is. A sharp reaction, in Beijing’s view, would prevent other countries from engaging with Taiwan at higher political levels. This may also spoil Mr. Xi’s status in the house. The fact that neither side wants, nor can afford, a military confrontation may still see current tensions with each side moving away and claiming to show strength to its home audience. However, the latest crisis has made clear the dangerous state of relations between the world’s two biggest powers. It is unlikely to be the last.