Even in this Kenyan election, the role played by ethnicity and tribalism is likely to be decisive
Even in this Kenyan election, the role played by ethnicity and tribalism is likely to be decisive
Kenya goes to polls on August 9, 2022 to elect the country’s fifth president, national parliamentarians, governors and legislatures from 47 of its countries. Without a doubt, Kenya’s upcoming elections will be one of the most important political events in Africa at a time when democratic rule is declining in parts of the continent. Given the fact that Kenya is one of Africa’s major democracies, and given its history of election-related violence, these elections are important and will be watched closely. A smooth process would strengthen the democratic advantage in the country and serve as a symbol for the rest of the continent. Political propaganda is in full swing and the debate mostly revolves around political dynasties, tribal power-brokers and changing inter-caste alliances. Complaints exist about caste, financial and vote-rigging corruption.
a close watch
India has been keeping a close watch on the Kenyan elections due to the political, economic and cultural ties that have been built between the two countries for a long time. The visit of India’s External Affairs Minister to Kenya during the pandemic only underlined the importance that India places on strengthening ties with this important East African neighbour. For a maritime country and a regional powerhouse like India, Kenya holds immense strategic importance and serves as a gateway to the wider Indian Ocean region. Kenya’s friendship is crucial for India to curb China’s growing aspirations in the region. At the same time, India faces several security threats in the backdrop of a dramatic increase in piracy and terrorist activities in the region. In addition, Kenya has a vibrant community of persons of Indian origin which currently number 80,000, including 20,000 expatriates. Indians are a successful community, and while their political preferences may differ, they mostly favor a closer relationship between the two countries.
There are some notable similarities between India and Kenya. Democratic values, pluralism and rule of law are important for both the countries. Like Indians, Kenyans are also interested in and involved in politics, and are active on social media. Just as caste-based politics has been the focus of India’s political landscape for decades, ethnic politics is common in Kenyan politics. In Kenyan politics, the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin and Luo are the four major tribes that have ruled the country practically since independence. In this election too, the role played by ethnicity and tribalism is likely to be decisive, with voting likely to take place along tribal lines.
Candidate
There is a rush of candidates in this election. The leading contenders are Vice President William Ruto and perennial challenger Raila Odinga. It is the first time since Kenya’s independence that the Kikuyu have not emerged as the main presidential candidate – Mr Ruto is a Kalenjin, the third largest ethnic group, and Mr Odinga is a Luo, the fourth largest ethnic group. Is. While Mr. Ruto was President Uhuru Kenyatta’s running mate for the previous two elections, Mr. Kenyatta this time backed longtime rival Mr. Odinga, who was a leading contender in the 2017 elections. The famous handshake between President Kenyatta and Leader of the Opposition Odinga in 2018 stunned the nation. The friendship began the year they declared a ceasefire in 2017 after post-election violence and stood firm that politics is the art of the possible. Its effect has been to reverse political alliances. The handshake and ceasefire have created a lot of unpredictability in the outcome of this election.
The two leading candidates have chosen running mates from the vote-rich Kikuyu ethnic group, whose support may have been crucial in determining the outcome. Former Prime Minister Odinga has settled for former Justice Minister Martha Karua, a political icon known for campaigns against corruption, with Vice President Ruto choosing businessman Rigathi Gachagua, a capable political negotiator.
The major issues of the competition have been clearly framed by both the parties. Mr. Ruto and his coalition have framed the general election as a contest between “hustlers” and “dynasties”. In Kenya, ‘hustlers’ refers to people, especially young people, who struggle to make ends meet in an economy that is said to no longer work for them. The ‘dynasty’ is a clear reference to the privileged upbringing of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga as the sons of the country’s first President and Vice President respectively. Conversely, Mr. Ruto has told how he went to school barefoot, and how he once “husked up selling chickens on the side of the road”.
With regard to Kenya’s economic agenda, Mr. Ruto has proposed a ‘bottom-up’ economic model in which the economy will be structured to help the common man. Mr Odinga’s campaign, on the other hand, is focused on attacking corruption, especially in high places. The high places are again called an attack on Mr. Ruto, who has been accused of amassing vast amounts of money during his time as Vice President.
ethnicity factor
Analysts say that despite economic issues emerging as a potential determinant of how people will vote, ethnicity still has a strong influence on voters. Apart from the issue of inclusion of all communities in government posts/appointments, the question of Kenya’s external debt is also central to the 2022 elections. Opinion polls have been conducted by various organizations to ascertain their intention to vote in Kenya. These all show that a neck-and-neck contest with Mr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga tied at 42%.
How does the Indian diaspora fit into this electoral activity? In 2017, Kenyans of Indian origin were officially recognized as the 44th tribe in Kenya due to their contributions to the country since independence. The recognition has given them a sense of shared identity with the Kenyans. However, no candidate of Indian origin is contesting for the presidential election. In any case this would be a very tall order given the ethnic dynamics of Kenyan politics. However, in some constituencies, some candidates of Indian origin are running for Parliament. An interesting feature of Indian diaspora candidates is that they have grown rapidly in constituencies outside the cities in western and central Kenya where they settled, speak the local language, and have developed political constituencies.
It is difficult to predict who the Indian diaspora might support in the presidential election. Electorally, the Indian diaspora is not a homogeneous community. While big businessmen generally favor government candidates, there is also the idea that they hedge their bets and support opposition candidates, especially when the opposition’s chances of victory are high.
Currently, all Kenyans are looking forward to free, fair and peaceful voting.
Aparajita Biswas, former Professor and Director, Center for African Studies, University of Mumbai, currently associated with The Strathmore University, Kenya