During a rare news conference marking the anniversary of his inauguration on Wednesday, Biden said: “It’s one thing if it’s a minor intrusion and we end up fighting about what to do and what not to do.” ” But if they really do what they are able to do with the forces accumulated on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they invade Ukraine further. ,
When asked to clarify what was a “minor incursion”, the president said he drew the line on “Russian forces crossing the border, killing Ukrainian fighters”, before adding that “there are differences between NATO as to which country”. Depends on what one wants to do, “what happens.”
The White House later clarified that Biden would treat any movement of Russian troops along the border as an invasion and act accordingly – and that fewer acts of Russian aggression like a cyberattack would be met with a reciprocal response.
“There’s some truth out there that didn’t need to be said out loud,” a NATO diplomat told CNN on Thursday. “It’s not that the Russians didn’t know that a cyber attack against Ukraine would not lead to a full-scale response.”
This sentiment was echoed by a senior EU diplomat, who said, “I think what he said was actually quite true. Whether it was politically correct, I don’t know.”
The fear is that Biden saying so publicly would give Russian President Vladimir Putin the green light to move on from what is already a very dangerous situation. Biden said in the same response that he predicts Russia will “go ahead” in Ukraine, which warned earlier this week that the build-up of Russian troops near the border between the two countries was “almost complete.”
The NATO diplomat who spoke to CNN said there is a “lack of clarity” on what the typical response of NATO allies to specific Russian actions would be.
“No situation yet,” the diplomat explained, but added that it will likely “break down on the lines you’d expect — the US, UK, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Easterners will have low-triggered borders, the rest. All one higher.”
The division of Europe, while less dramatic than Moscow’s, appeared earlier this week, when French President Emmanuel Macron said the European Parliament should agree a new security deal with Russia and its talks with the Kremlin. Must be involved in the conversation.
Macron has long supported the EU to exercise greater control over its defense and security capabilities and has led the call for a permanent European military.
However, EU member states are also divided on how far this should go. And countries previously ruled by the Soviet Union are deeply skeptical about doing anything that could undermine NATO, a US-led military alliance that undermines European security. Most European countries are members of NATO.
Riho Teres, a former commander in Estonia’s military, said, “Macron has the infamous quality of thinking out-of-the-box and throwing out ideas that have nothing to do with the real world,” and that he has “no relation to the European Union”. Has” “offered to start a conversation with.” Russia falls into that category.”
Former Finnish prime minister Alexander Staub – another country that shares a border with Russia – says that while “strengthening European defense will certainly help, it will not be in Finland’s interest to follow what NATO is already doing.” Has been doing.” has been doing.” Finland is currently not a member of NATO.
How will Biden’s words affect the situation in Ukraine? Experts were divided given the unpredictability of the situation.
Terras said Russia attacking Ukraine “a little too much” was not something the West should tolerate and that Biden’s remarks “could encourage Putin to seize the opportunity and launch a ‘minor incursion’, but According to his (her) definition.”
Velina Tchakarova, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, believes Biden’s comments would have “a devastating psychological impact on European NATO allies as well as the Ukrainian establishment”, but they did not factor too much into Putin’s thinking. Huh. Because “Moscow is used to the diplomatic language of Western officials and does not take it at face value.”
Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House and author of the forthcoming book “How Russia Gets Its Way,” says: “The impact of his comments in Russia may be as much of the confusion he has created for government machinery elsewhere. Russia In. Let’s fight to remove mixed messages from Washington.”
Overall, most EU officials who spoke to CNN do not think Biden’s remarks will prompt a major escalation from the Kremlin. However, they are very upset that Europe’s disagreements on security are being pointed out directly.