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Analysis: Taliban withdrawal plunges Middle East into unknown waters

September 8, 2021
Sezarr

In 2001, the fall of Taliban It was the first major milestone in America’s so-called “war on terror” that ultimately transformed both the country and the Middle East. Twenty years later, the group’s Return to power in Kabuli Still limping by the unspeakable damage of that war, the region has been pushed into unknown waters.

If the US invasion of Afghanistan intensified US intervention in the Middle East, its exit from the country also signals a quick decline from a region that has long served as a center of political tension. Dramatic scenes in Afghanistan have sounded alarm bells across the Middle East, which hastily destroyed the economic and political system that was built on or seeking to counter a large US presence in the region. Was.

Before the withdrawal from Afghanistan, there was a flurry of diplomatic and military activities. one year ago, wave of generalization The agreement between some Arab countries and Israel prompted then-President Donald Trump to say: “We no longer have to live … we no longer live in areas that were once important.”
President Joe Biden has continued down that path. US President on Tuesday strong defense The retreat and final chaotic scene in Kabul, asserting that the era of invading countries intended to instill American values, was no longer viable. He argued that the US “no longer had a clear purpose in an open-ended mission in Afghanistan” and that the US withdrawal signaled “the end of an era of major military operations for other countries to remake”.

With a laser focus on China, Biden’s administration has made it clear to US regional allies that they should no longer rely on the US for their security needs. States have to defend themselves. For the Middle East, it changes everything.

“The US’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban’s strong withdrawal in the Afghan capital, and the escalating Iranian threat indicate that the Gulf security equation will be very different this century,” wrote UAE political commentator Abdulkhalek Abdullah. an opinion piece For the national newspaper based in Abu Dhabi.

“The Gulf is on the verge of massive security and military changes, perhaps the biggest since 1971, when the US took responsibility for its own security and turned it into the ‘American Gulf’ in a strategic sense,” wrote the Emirati professor, who Abu Dhabi is believed to be close to Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed. “It may not be the same during the next five decades.”

The modern Middle East – whose state borders were carved out by Western colonial powers and where American interests in the oil-rich region had long served as the focal point of regional geopolitics – are barely perceptible. What does a minimalist western look look like.

There are two main schools of thought regarding the North-Middle East of America. One says that the existing regional axes will become stronger and more brazen – so the Gulf Arabs will continue to meet around Israel Inspired by the US exit, to counter Iran’s axis.
The second theory suggests that the absence of a credible US military partner would accelerate diplomatic efforts between traditional enemies to reduce tensions and require a stronger defensive strategy. Gone are the days when the US would throw its forces to protect regional allies, such as the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1991. US military inaction after attack on Saudi Arabian oil refineries 2019 Drone Strike The Iranian accused (Tehran denies the allegations) talked about America’s new regional math.
Both routes – military polarization and increased diplomacy – are already being tested. When Israel and the UAE made their secret ties official last year, they began on a whirlwind honeymoon Which blinded most observers. The agreement has seen them collaborate on technology and, potentially, broadly and clearly the protection. The United Arab Emirates, along with other Gulf powerhouses, uses Israeli spyware extensively. Despite Arab outrage about the threat of forced displacement of Palestinians Sheikh Jarrahi’s East Jerusalem Quarter At the start of this year, those relationships aren’t going anywhere.
Reconciliation is on the rise in other unexpected quarters as well. The UAE does not want to push Tehran forward with its efforts in a clear alliance with Israel. In an interview with CNN’s Becky Anderson last year, Anwar Gargash, an adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, said that the normalization agreement should not be seen as an escalation against Iran, but as part of a growing trend to stabilize the region. should be seen as . to be seen as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who once Compares Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Adolf HitlerThe US said earlier this year that it wanted new ties with Iran.

In his first news conference since becoming Iran’s new president in June, hardliner Ibrahim Raisi indicated he was willing to reopen embassies in the Saudi and Iranian capitals. The two countries have held several rounds of talks since early 2021 in an effort to defuse decades of tension.

Other regional rivalries are also showing signs of softening. The UAE has held high-level talks with Turkey and Qatar, which it has long accused of supporting terrorism. Saudi Arabia has also made similar proposals.

Last weekend in Baghdad, a regional summit also appeared to send complex signals about the region’s future. A meeting during the event between Tehran’s newly-appointed Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdullahian and UAE Prime Minister Mohammed bin Rashid was the highest level meeting between the two countries in years.

But Amir-Abdullahian apparently did not meet his Saudi counterpart, who was also present at the summit. Instead, he went out of his way to avoid her. In a breach of diplomatic protocol, Iranian top diplomats pose with the country’s leaders during a group photo. His assigned position was next to that of the Saudi top diplomat along with other foreign ministers.

In a breach of diplomatic protocol, Iranian top diplomats pose with the country's leaders during a group photo. His assigned position was next to that of the Saudi top diplomat along with other foreign ministers.
In a breach of diplomatic protocol, Iranian top diplomats pose with the country's leaders during a group photo. His assigned position was next to that of the Saudi top diplomat along with other foreign ministers.

“When was the last time a regional level conference was held? [The Baghdad conference] Shows what is happening in the area. There were no Americans there, ”Iran expert and editor of Amvaz. Media Mohammed Ali Shabani told CNN. “The empire is gone. He is gone.”

At breakneck speed, the area has seen local actors try to fill American shoes. Sometimes it is literal. Images of Taliban fighters in US military gear inspecting aircraft hangars shocked people around the world. What an extremist group with access to some of the world’s best weapons would do is not yet clear. And the wider field is on the edge of its seat as those surreal scenes shine on its screen.

As uncertainty rises and the Middle East becomes crippled by dwindling resources, Shabani predicted that many autocrats in the region would double, and the unrest would worsen.

This has already manifested itself in parts of the Arab world, such as in Tunisia, where there was no popular protest last month for President Kais Saied’s widespread power-grabbing to crack down on corruption and mismanagement. In beleaguered Lebanon, which is rapidly turning into anarchy, many on the country’s streets openly call for a military dictatorship.

“We are going to move less towards ideology and more towards good governance,” Shabani said. “It means that there is more tolerance for authoritarian rule if it is accompanied by prosperity. But if it is not accompanied by prosperity then we are going to see worse.”

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