YouA few years ago Ntil – even on the morning of this decade – imagining the Caucasus may have been met with most Indians with a shrug. Nevertheless, last week, it was encouraged deeply to witness dozens of Indians collected in Armenia’s capital Yerevan for the second repetition of Yerevan dialogue.
Some people could predict that within three to four years, India’s presence in the region would grow so decisively that it would emerge as Armenia’s largest defense supplier in its long struggle with Azerbaijan.
In earlier writing, I said in the complex reasons behind Armenia why a small, landlocked nation in the South Caucasus-got caught in a long struggle with my neighbor. Rapid forward for the present, and India’s growing success in Armenia is a story of fast decision making and diplomacy-mixing all the right elements together at the right time.
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Geophysics in vagor
Traditionally, India’s diplomatic focus is close to the house – at its immediate neighborhood, and then the ex -side of the east side and the policies of the east side and the policies of the east. After the 2015 security and growth, a identified change is for everyone in the region (ocean) theory, India’s maritime vision is taking the center stage in the strategic stones of New Delhi.
During the current dispensation, New Delhi immediately made its strategic outreach route wider beyond theaters. With aspirations of a big role in both geopolitics and geopolitics, India has begun to connect with new regions-looking at the opportunities presented by the continuous flow of genuine power dynamics.
India’s relationship with Armenia is a prime example of this change. It has long been known as the world’s largest arms importer, and often struggling to modernize its indigenous defense sector, India was found to be a rare partner in Armenia – which is ready to buy almost every major arms system that has developed domestically.
Through Russia’s formal collaborator of Russia-Armenia, the collective safety organization (CSTO) to expand the meaningful security guarantee during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts in -2020 and 2023, as well as Azerbaijan, AAA A Eserbaijan, A. Frustrated Yerevan It was forced to see elsewhere for support. Russia’s deep complication in Ukraine attracted its attention from the influence of its traditional region, leaving a vacuum that India stepped into both urgency and strategic foresight.
While eager to modernize its defense capabilities, Armenia had a lack of financial instruments for the purchase of expensive Western platforms. Its newborn defense industry was not yet adequately equipped, just starting for expertise in top technologies. In a practical step, Armenia turned to India.
The Indian weapon system, although not expensive as their western counterparts, offered reliable and effective solutions. Within just two years, by 2023, India appointed a defense attachment to Jerevan and concluded several defense agreements of millions of dollars. Among them, a wide spectrum of indigenous platforms was covered, ranging from the sky-to-hwa (SAM) missile system and Swati weapon-local radar to advanced Tow Artillery Gun System (ATAGS) and large consignments of ammunition. The only notable exception is the Brahmin missile system-has been developed from-that Jerevan has so far saved, possibly due to a stressful relationship with Russia and Moscow’s Baku with Baku.
Armenia’s increasing dependence on Indian defense exports marked an important milestone for India. Historically, Indian weapons have fought to gain recognition abroad, and cases like grounded Dhruv helicopter– Your sales sales – not inspired by much confidence. However, Jeerevan has not only bought several Indian platforms, but has also closely observed the performance of India’s indigenous systems in view of operation vermilion strikes on Pakistani terrorist camps and air locations, which enhances confidence in their credibility.
India’s defense exports have increased in recent years, which is killing 24,000 crore rupees Mark for the first time in 2024. With the ambitions of over Rs 50,000 crore by the end of the decade, it appears within the trajectory access. However, most of these exports include dual use technologies and secondary components fixed for Western partners such as the US and France. Armenia stands out as one of the few, perhaps the only country that purchases full Indian platforms. A notable exception, however, has been selected by South East Asian buyers of the Russian-co-built Brahmin missile, such as the Philippines and Vietnam.
After this Armenia is in a unique place in the defense outreach of India. For example, the French had expressed interest in India’s Pinaka Multi-Rocket Rocket Launcher-India’s Armenia was the same because of his sale-although he finally opted for various systems. However, such visibility in cinemas of mutual interest provides a smart sales pitch to Indian defense skills.
What next?
As the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is currently in a delicate Trus, and peace talks continue, now it is time for India to mature its defense partnership with Armenia. Many strategic ways lie further: continue selling direct weapons; Integrating the Armenian Start-up at “Make in India” and “Make for the World” initiative; And cooperating within a comprehensive security structure.
One such Avenue is a tripartite cooperation mechanism. While India is the largest defense supplier of Armenia, France stood second. Given the strong defense relations between India and France and a shared industrial roadmap, co-produce and co-export in the third countries can be a mutual win. Beyond France, Armenia’s growing defense relations with Greece and Cyprus – especially after their 2024 Tripartite agreement-The purpose of a comprehensive alignment is aimed at facing Turkish and Pakistani effects in the region.
In the developed geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus, Armenia’s security is increasing the possibility of intensive cooperation between India, France and Greece to support architecture. For India, it is important in transitioning from a transition from a transaction of a transaction – focused on the sale of weapons – for a more mature structure that ensures that the region has ensured a rapidly expanded military footprint, not only continuous, but institutional. The prudent course for New Delhi is then pursuing long -term engagement as a reliable security partner through coordinated activities with joint exercises and equal ideology players.
Stabilization of Armenia
Although defense cooperation is actually the most visible symbol of India’s presence in the region, more below the surface.
Currently, Armenia is navigating complex dialogues for a peace agreement with its neighbors. For a country surrounded by adverse powers – Asanabaijan and Turkish – and a disintegrated Russia, survival depends on taking advantage of its geography. The developed strategy of Armenia is to keep yourself in position as an important connectivity hub for regional corridors. What can appear as an agreement today, in fact, can become a long -term stabilization model for this nation, with a strong nationalist spirit of only three million people.
From the point of view of India, bets are both economic and strategic. International North-South Transport Corridors (Instal), Which begins in Mumbai and spreads to the Gulf of Persia through the monkey Abbas of Iran, the Baku for Moscow continues northwards via N Marg. India is also insisting on connecting the Instc to another Iranian port, Chabahar, which has important Indian investment.
This corridor stands to achieve significantly from the new business link which includes armenia.
India and Iran, in collaboration with Armenia, are promoting it under a tripartite structure. In particular, the connectivity through Armenia’s southern Syunik province not only enhances regional trade dynamics, but also provides India a counterweight for the growing Turkish-Azerbaijan axis in the Caucasus.
Armenia, who is already a reliable buyer of Indian defense platforms, is rapidly ready to serve as India’s strategic entrance to the South Caucasus. From there, India can bring diversity to the Black Sea and Europe through Georgia, or eastward in Central Asia and Caspian Basin. This vision aligns with the footprint of India’s growing infrastructure with ambitious, broad Mediterranean arc.
For example, take India’s interest in connecting the Indo-Central East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to the three-seize initiative-European, Baltic and Adriatic markets. Along with the ability to develop ports and transport infrastructure in important maritime areas, India is specificly deployed to unbalance not only China’s impact in Central Asia, but also has a growing dominance of Turkey in the Caucasus. Importantly, if played wisely, India’s long -term relations with Russia can serve as a feature, not a barrier to these ambitions.
Is this interconnected vision eventually spread to include the Arctic – where the geo -political competition and competition will intensify because the recurrence of the snow hat – to be seen. But the trajectory is clear: India is preparing itself for a broad, boulder role in areas that shape the geopolitics of tomorrow through symbiotic relations.
Swasti Rao Theprint has a consulting editor and a foreign policy specialist. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)