Guwahati: Third wave of covid I hope to reach the peak Assam An internal assessment by top officials of the state health department in the last week of January has revealed.
While the daily cases in the state crossed the 6,000-mark on Monday, sources in the state health department said that as per the assessment, the state may report 12,000 to 15,000 daily cases during the peak this time. “The increase in Covid cases is already unusually high and will continue to rise. Also, the densely populated districts in upper, northern and southern Assam are equally vulnerable,” said the source.
Health experts said here that the rising trend in the number of Covid cases is indicating that Assam is heading towards the third wave very soon, but it may not last very long. “The declining trend should start in Assam from February itself,” the source said.
During the peak of the second wave in the state at the end of May last year, more than 6,000 cases were reported daily. By the time the second wave touched its peak, the highest number of deaths was 92, twice on May 17 and May 25. Even though this time so many deaths are unlikely due to the lesser severity of the disease, health officials said that the cumulative cases are set to double soon. “The positivity rate will continue to grow beyond 10%,” said an official.
The second wave took almost two months before the number of daily cases dropped below 1,000. “If the third wave is longer, Bohag Bihu may also be celebrated in mid-April with restrictions. However, given the low severity, we should almost return to normalcy by March,” the official said.
Assam’s Director of Medical Education, Dr Anoop Kumar Barman said that the state has a large number of asymptomatic COVID patients and if the number of tests pick up, the cumulative number of cases will also increase. “Random Covid tests are mostly detecting positive cases in Assam. Thorough contact tracing of asymptomatic cases will definitely increase the positivity rate,” he said.
Burman recognized that densely populated districts like Tinsukia And sonitpur Will show an increase in the number of cases. “The district-wise trend of increase in cases is similar to that of the second wave,” he said.
Even as the caseload in Kamrup (Metro) district is much higher than other districts where the virus is spreading rapidly in the community, Cachar, Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Tinsukia and Kamrup districts are on the health department’s radar. If the positive cases are counted in the last 10 days (January 8 to January 17), Kamrup (Metro) had 8,992 cases, followed by Cachar (2,018). Jorhat (1,788), Dibrugarh (1,737), Tinsukia (1,332) and Kamrup (1,308).
While the daily cases in the state crossed the 6,000-mark on Monday, sources in the state health department said that as per the assessment, the state may report 12,000 to 15,000 daily cases during the peak this time. “The increase in Covid cases is already unusually high and will continue to rise. Also, the densely populated districts in upper, northern and southern Assam are equally vulnerable,” said the source.
Health experts said here that the rising trend in the number of Covid cases is indicating that Assam is heading towards the third wave very soon, but it may not last very long. “The declining trend should start in Assam from February itself,” the source said.
During the peak of the second wave in the state at the end of May last year, more than 6,000 cases were reported daily. By the time the second wave touched its peak, the highest number of deaths was 92, twice on May 17 and May 25. Even though this time so many deaths are unlikely due to the lesser severity of the disease, health officials said that the cumulative cases are set to double soon. “The positivity rate will continue to grow beyond 10%,” said an official.
The second wave took almost two months before the number of daily cases dropped below 1,000. “If the third wave is longer, Bohag Bihu may also be celebrated in mid-April with restrictions. However, given the low severity, we should almost return to normalcy by March,” the official said.
Assam’s Director of Medical Education, Dr Anoop Kumar Barman said that the state has a large number of asymptomatic COVID patients and if the number of tests pick up, the cumulative number of cases will also increase. “Random Covid tests are mostly detecting positive cases in Assam. Thorough contact tracing of asymptomatic cases will definitely increase the positivity rate,” he said.
Burman recognized that densely populated districts like Tinsukia And sonitpur Will show an increase in the number of cases. “The district-wise trend of increase in cases is similar to that of the second wave,” he said.
Even as the caseload in Kamrup (Metro) district is much higher than other districts where the virus is spreading rapidly in the community, Cachar, Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Tinsukia and Kamrup districts are on the health department’s radar. If the positive cases are counted in the last 10 days (January 8 to January 17), Kamrup (Metro) had 8,992 cases, followed by Cachar (2,018). Jorhat (1,788), Dibrugarh (1,737), Tinsukia (1,332) and Kamrup (1,308).
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