Battle for development: India’s economic trajectory

With a low revised estimate of 5.6% (5.4%) in the last quarter, in the December quarter of this financial year (Q3Fy25), in the December quarter of this financial year (Q3Fy25), in the December quarter, there was a significant increase in India’s economic trajectory. To ensure this, this growth rate was the fastest since Q4Fy23, except for 5.6%of the previous quarter. The growth rate of 6.2% also suggests that the government’s full-year-old development target is almost unattainable, which can cause imported inflation, given the global headwind of tariffs, between manufacturing and domestic tapid performance by the service sector. The growth of Q3Fy25 has been extended by the primary sector, the price of 5.2% in the same quarter of the previous year is more than 5.2%. But last year, compared to 12.4% and 8.3%, the increase in secondary and tertiary sectors which were increased by manufacturing and services to 4.8% and 7.4% respectively. While Chief Economic Advisor V. Anant Nevasavaran admitted that the growth rate of 7.6% in the current quarter is ambitious amidst global economic uncertainties, suggesting that this growth is optimistic rather than obtainable sounds, until the Maha Kumbh inspired a consumption spike that was able to influence the growth numbers of the current quarter. India’s manufacturing and service sectors are unsafe for global trade uncertainties, such as 25% of US import tariffs on steel, and a similar percentage on pharmaceuticals. About one -third (31%) of India’s pharma exports was $ 8.7 billion in total, in the US in FY14. The news of the proposed tariff has sent shock waves, some firms have suggested a axis to produce in the US, which can potentially lead to trade revenue loss for India.

Although there are bright spots. An increase of 8.3% (2.3%) in government spending and 6.9% (5.7%) in private consumption expenditure has been increased by a restraint in inflation. The RBI has estimated inflation on an average of 4.8% in FY25, estimating that it will reduce by 4.2% in FY26, indicating potential alignment with a medium -term target of 4% of RBI. However, these current estimates have questioned as the National Statistical Office (NSO) that it has attempted a trick of its functioning, “Industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information” factoring, but is not quite detailed about the impact of this material on the quality of data and quantity. The NSO said that ‘regional variations in total as well as advanced estimates are responsible for the additional or updated data available on various indicators of benchmark estimates.’ The NSO should clarify this amendment in functioning so that it provides to enable more informed analysis of data.