Recently, a senior journalist tweeted a question: What are the chances that the people being discussed now will become the next President of India? One of the respondents—he is also known to have credible insights into the workings of the BJP—said: “close to zero.” And answers like these reveal what some of us are missing ahead of the July 18 election to elect the 16th President of India.
On Wednesday, West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee held a meeting of opposition leaders, including those from the Congress, and decided to discuss the names of a joint presidential candidate. How combined any candidate will be from parties like AAP (Delhi and Punjab), TRS (Telangana), YSRCP (Andhra Pradesh), SAD (Punjab) and BJD (Odisha) is a question. ) attended the meeting despite the invitations.
The Left was part of the deliberations but is not happy with Banerjee’s “unilateral actions”. However, two names have been suggested: Gopalkrishna Gandhi, former governor of West Bengal and grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, and Farooq Abdullah, former CM of Jammu and Kashmir.
On the other hand, not much is talked about the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) camp, which is almost certain to win the election whose result will be declared on July 21. One advantage the NDA has is opposition in any potential contest. Hence, some people are wondering which camp will win. The question is, who will be the NDA candidate?
Union Minister Rajnath Singh and BJP President JP Nadda are in talks with the opposition parties for the consensus candidate. The name may have already been decided, but we don’t know who it could be. Not many people do this even within the BJP.
But past presidential elections show some unacceptable patterns. The NDA’s choice has a strong electoral reach and political significance. And, more importantly, it also captures the opposition, forcing some of its constituents to go with the NDA. And this may make the figures showing in favor of NDA a bit more irrelevant.
The NDA’s choice has a strong electoral reach and political significance. And, more importantly, it also captures the opposition, forcing some of its constituents to go with the NDA. And this may make the figures showing in favor of NDA a bit more irrelevant.
In 2002, NDA nominated APJ Abdul Kalam as its candidate for the post of President of India. The move stunned the opposition Congress and regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (Uttar Pradesh) and TDP (Andhra Pradesh), who eventually backed India’s “missile man” for the country’s top constitutional post. Banerjee did too.
Kalam belonged to Tamil Nadu and the two main parties of the state, AIADMK and DMK, had no reason to oppose him. The only exception was the Left which fielded freedom fighter Lakshmi Sehgal who lost in a one-sided contest.
Recently, during the last election in 2017, the NDA surprised by electing Ram Nath Kovind, the then governor of Bihar and a low-profile Dalit leader. He won easily. We have seen how the BJP, through this and other such measures, has won a large section of the voters of the Dalit community in the elections.
NDA may repeat Kovind in the presidential election or surprise us with another surprising option, voting for which will take place only if there is no consensus candidate from both the camps. Some reports said Karnataka Governor and Dalit leader Thaavar Chand Gehlot, Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan and former Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan could also be considered.
We don’t know if that’s even an idea, but Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi fits the BJP’s habit of reaching out to electorally important communities and leaving little choice to the opposition. He is a Shia Muslim. His wife is Hindu. A section of Shia Muslims have been soft on the BJP. Whatever support came from the Muslim community for the NDA government’s law against triple talaq came from Shia Muslims.
Naqvi has not been nominated to the Rajya Sabha, and the Lok Sabha elections will be held only in 2024. His candidature really cannot be rejected. Kerala Governor Mohammad Arif Khan could be another such choice.
There are many more such possibilities. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often praised Tamil culture, saying that the Tamil language is older than Sanskrit. Suppose a Tamilian from the south is chosen as the presidential candidate. In that case, it will help the BJP to enter almost untouched territory and it will be difficult for some opposition parties like TRS to resist the candidature. It will be difficult for Tamil Nadu’s ruling party DMK to remain in the opposition camp as well. The BJP was anyway an ally of Tamil Nadu’s opposition AIADMK in the last state elections.
And what if the NDA chooses a tribal candidate? Who will fight strongly against the campaign to elect India’s first tribal president? Even so-called independents like BJD and YSRCP (Andhra Pradesh) will eventually find it easier to support the NDA as they often do.
NDA’s tribal prospects include former Jharkhand governor Draupadi Murmu, Chhattisgarh governor Anusuiya Uikey and Odisha’s Jual Oram. North-East candidate will have the same benefit.
And imagine a Bengali NDA candidate from West Bengal? It may even force Banerjee to reconsider her choice. This has happened in the past. In 2012, he took a U-turn just 48 hours before the election and voted for Pranab Mukherjee, the UPA’s presidential candidate. As the second largest constituent, he had created a coalition crisis by proposing other names. Mukherjee became the first Bengali to be elected the President of India. Despite his personal equations, it was always difficult for the Chief Minister of West Bengal not to support a Bengali.
In 2012, Mamata Banerjee took a U-turn just 48 hours before the election and voted for Pranab Mukherjee, the UPA’s presidential candidate. As the second largest constituent, he had created a coalition crisis by proposing other names. Mukherjee became the first Bengali to be elected the President of India.
And now in the west. The NCP – part of Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena-led ruling coalition MVA which also includes the Congress – is with Banerjee in choosing a joint opposition face. But there could be a twist there too. In the last three presidential elections, the Shiv Sena, part of the NDA, voted against its alliance’s choice. And it leaves some room for the Shiv Sena to support the NDA’s choice, even though it is no longer part of the BJP-led group, if the alternative is favorable to Maharashtra’s ruling party.
But when the NDA’s victory in the presidential election is almost certain, why is Banerjee putting in so much effort? It is about 2024 when elections will be held in India.
She knows the Congress’s morale has been dented by the looming electoral defeat; Its leader Rahul Gandhi is embroiled in the National Herald money laundering case; Its chairperson Sonia Gandhi is battling ill health; AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, who has consumed the Congress’s support base, does not want to be seen as an anti-Modi leader so that he can win over BJP voters without harassing them; And TRS leader K Chandrasekhar Rao does not have that kind of national appeal.
Banerjee knows this is her best opportunity to project herself as an alternative to Modi. The BJP also knows that their wishes will further weaken and weaken the Congress. The presidential election could be another opportunity for the BJP to perpetuate perceptions of deep divisions and, by extension, the lack of a credible alternative in the opposition camp.
(The President of India is elected by the members of the Electoral College, which includes elected members of both Houses of Parliament and elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of all states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the Union Territory of Puducherry)