Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party staged a stunning comeback to win the federal election, securing 168 seats — four short of a majority in the 343-member Parliament. The final tally could change, as Elections Canada paused counting special ballots expected to impact about a dozen districts.
Poilievre ousted in shock defeat
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre lost his own seat in Ontario’s Carleton district to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy. Poilievre, once seen as the frontrunner, was hit hard by voter backlash to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and annexation remarks.
Trump’s rhetoric shifts election
Trump’s proposal to make Canada the “51st U.S. state” and impose a 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars triggered a wave of patriotism and fear, pushing undecided and left-leaning voters toward Carney. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation earlier this year also helped consolidate support for the Liberals.
Here are 5 key factors for Marck Carney in securing a remarkable victory for the Liberal Party in the 2025 Canadian election.
1. Trump as a political foil
Mark Carney successfully turned Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on trade and Canadian sovereignty into a central campaign issue. By framing the election as a battle for Canada’s economic survival and independence, Carney positioned himself as the steady hand needed to confront external threats. His direct messaging—”Trump wants to break us so America can own us”—resonated with voters concerned about national stability.
2. Crisis leadership credibility
Despite being a political newcomer, Carney leveraged his global reputation as a crisis-era central banker. His experience leading the Bank of Canada and Bank of England during turbulent times gave him instant credibility among voters worried about economic uncertainty. His mid-campaign diplomatic handling of Trump’s auto tariffs further cemented his image as a capable leader.
3. Progressive vote consolidation
The Liberals benefited from the collapse of the New Democratic Party (NDP), which saw its vote share drop dramatically. Many progressive voters shifted their support to the Liberals, helping Carney consolidate the centre-left space and squeeze out potential vote splits.
4. Strategic focus on national unity
Carney’s message of inclusive leadership, especially in the face of regional divisions and growing Western alienation, struck a unifying tone. His victory speech emphasised governing “for all Canadians,” which helped reassure voters in more centrist and undecided regions of the country.
5. Timely seizing of opportunities
Carney entered the race following Trudeau’s sudden resignation and quickly seized the moment. When Trump announced global auto tariffs, Carney stepped away from the trail to act as a sitting prime minister, showing voters he could handle real-time crises. This agility and timing helped him stand out as both a newcomer and a statesman.