China could see more than 1 million Covid deaths by 2023, predicts new model

Chicago:

According to new estimates from the US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the lifting of stringent COVID-19 restrictions by China could lead to an explosion of cases and more than a million deaths by 2023.

According to the group’s projections, cases in China will peak around April 1, when deaths will reach 322,000. IHME director Christopher Murray said that by then about a third of China’s population would have been infected.

China’s National Health Authority has not reported any official COVID deaths since the lifting of COVID restrictions. The last official death was recorded on 3 December.

Total pandemic deaths stand at 5,235.

China lifted some of the world’s toughest COVID restrictions in December after unprecedented public protests and now faces a surge in infections, with fears that COVID will spread to its 1.4 billion population during next month’s Lunar New Year holiday. can spread to

“No one thought they would stick to zero-COVID as long as they did,” Murray said on Friday when the IHME’s projections were released online.

He said that China’s zero-COVID policy may have been effective in keeping earlier variants of the virus at bay, but the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant has made it impossible to maintain.

The independent modeling group at the University of Washington in Seattle, which has been relied upon by governments and companies during the pandemic, obtained provincial data and information from the recent outbreak in Hong Kong from Omicron.

“China has reported barely any deaths since the original Wuhan outbreak. So we looked to Hong Kong to get an idea of ​​the infection’s death rate,” Murray said.

For its forecasts, the IHME uses information on vaccination rates provided by the Chinese government as well as estimates of how different provinces will respond if infection rates rise.

Other experts expect about 60% of China’s population to eventually be infected, with a peak expected in January, with vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, being hardest hit.

Major concerns include China’s large pool of susceptible individuals, the use of less effective vaccines, and low vaccine coverage among people age 80 and older, who are at greatest risk of severe disease.

other models

According to a paper released Wednesday on the medrixiv preprint server, disease modelers from the University of Hong Kong estimate that simultaneous reopening of all provinces and lifting of Covid restrictions from December 2022 to January 2023 could reduce the number of deaths per million people during that time frame. There will be 684 deaths. Has yet to undergo peer review.

Based on China’s population of 1.41 billion, and without measures such as a massive vaccination booster campaign, this amounts to 964,400 deaths.

Another study published in July 2022 in Nature Medicine by researchers at the School of Public Health at Fudan University in Shanghai predicted that an Omicron wave absent restrictions would result in 1.55 million deaths over a six-month period, and 15.6 times more intensive care units. There will be peak demand. compared to existing capacity.

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said 164 million people in China suffer from diabetes, a risk factor for poor COVID outcomes. There are also 8 million people age 80 and older who have never been vaccinated.

Huang said Chinese officials are now encouraging individuals to get a boost from the list of new Chinese-made shots, however, the government is still reluctant to use foreign vaccines.

China’s National Health Commission said on Friday it was ramping up vaccinations and building up stocks of ventilators and essential medicines.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)