China’s 20th Party Congress ends, the way forward

20th Party Congress of China concluded With hardly any surprises, and a predetermined script was implemented without a hitch. Xi Jinping named president for an unprecedented third termAnd all six of his acolytes made it to the powerful Politburo Standing Committee. li qiang Li Keqiang is widely expected to take over as prime minister, who was unofficially Removed from Standing Committee, Introducing the new leadership, Mr. Xi’s words – that he won’t be intimidated by it’Strong winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms‘ – reflects the prevailing mood in the Congress.

‘Core’ position reinforced

The result can be summed up in the following words – retaining the party’s grip on power supersedes everything else. Mr. Xi’s ‘Original’ Status further strengthened, and he is now ready to take on Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin, making him only after Mao. Mr. Xi’s view on ‘Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era’ will be the guiding philosophy of the Communist Party of China/Communist Party of China (CCP) for the future. National security will be the major determining factor in all aspects of governance.

A common theme that pervaded the proceedings was the affirmation of the CCP’s historic mission. There was only one narrative, coined in this way, that praised Mr. Xi’s role in the CCP’s revitalization, further enhancing his cult status. What was explicitly rejected was an earlier Xi thesis of a ‘community of shared destiny’ which has been replaced by the belief that international public opinion was currently anti-China and also included provocation to overthrow the current communist regime Included. To counter such disruptive philosophies, it became necessary for the CCP to emphasize ideological cohesion and internal discipline. This will help avoid the danger of ‘Soviet-style collapse’ due to ideological dysfunction, corruption, divisions within the party and attempts by outsiders to create unrest.

Within the realm of geopolitics, Congress declared that it was intended to effectively curtail the authority and power of the United States. This was especially true of the neighborhood of China, essentially the Indo-Pacific. The vague and contradictory goals of the past were also distant from China, which were undertaken at a time when China sought to make rapid progress in many directions.

Implicit in the proceedings was the belief that China was being deliberately denied access, and the ability to import certain critical technological goods, and in this regard, being the victim of major international conspiracies. Earlier concerns about Western pressures to derail China’s progress had replaced pragmatism.

The Party Congress is emblematic of the fact that Mr. Xi is much more than a mere party ‘restorer’, and he adheres to the belief that the role of the CCP is central to Chinese society and is important to determine China’s role in world affairs. important for. Belief in the CCP’s historic mission was crucial to avoid the disastrous mistakes made by the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, which led to its demise.

In the context of China’s world view, the Party Congress reiterated that the goal is to make China a modern socialist power by 2035, to raise per capita income to a middle income level, and to modernize the armed forces. By 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, China is determined to lead the world in terms of overall national power and international influence.

It was also clear that Mr. Xi enjoys widespread support within the party’s elite, which, if not overwhelming, has enabled him to tighten control over it as well as infuse a new sense of purpose. . While many Chinese do not want to turn back the clock, however, there are some who oppose Mr. Xi’s excessive emphasis on criticism of the Communist Party in every sphere, as well as the disruption of the traditional power structure. Therefore, it may not be all plain sailing in the period ahead.

implications for the world

What message does the party Congress give to the world including India? What China is likely to do in the party’s post-Congress era, despite the repeated use of certain words such as security and military, remains a mystery. Mr. Xi wields more power and authority today, perhaps in a better position in the hierarchy than before, and is supported by a group of leaders who have no independent base. He has autocratic authority – the head of the party, the head of state and chairman, the Central Military Commission. The point is how he proposes to use it in the coming five years.

Conventional wisdom would be that Mr. Xi would almost immediately flex his muscles to achieve some predetermined goal. Still, given Mr. Xi’s makeup and background, one should not expect him to act irrationally. Mr. Xi is a Maoist in a certain sense, but he is not Mao, and is unlikely to be involved in the mistakes made by Mao such as The Great Leap Forward and the break-up with the Soviet Union. His goal is to make China great again by 2049. Therefore, he is likely to act hastily and act with more than a degree of caution to avoid thwarting the goal of achieving greatness by 2049. China has many peaks to conquer in the next. 25 years before he achieved greatness, and Mr. Xi will not count on jeopardizing the 2049 goal by acting prematurely or through his grandeur.

Therefore, one can expect that, despite the level of rhetoric and the claim that this is a dangerous stage, China is unlikely to take any premature steps to annex Taiwan, and thus engage with the US and the rest of the world at large. may risk conflict. point. Mr. Xi is more likely to focus on internal affairs within China, as unity within the Communist Party is short-lived; While dissent is sealed for the present, more consolidation will be necessary.

The state of China’s economy is also likely to be of major concern to the party leadership, including Mr. Xi. Tackling the clouds on the horizon, which include efforts to isolate China and impose new restrictions on trade, will be a high priority, especially given China’s access to key technologies such as semi-conductor technology available elsewhere in the world. As a result, one can see China withdrawing from its current confrontational stance with the US and many other countries and adopting a more conciliatory approach in the near future. There are, of course, some red lines – any attempt to provoke within the ‘first island chain’, or encourage Taiwan to gain independence or break away from China – is sure to lead to a conflict, even if it is China. have an adverse effect on 2049 Plans and Objectives.

for Japan and India

While China may adopt a more benign attitude towards much of the world, India and Japan will top the list of countries on China’s agenda with potential conflicts to ensure that they support China’s leadership in Asia. accept. In India’s case, while further skirmishes can be expected between the two countries along several thousand kilometers of undefined land border, China is unlikely to launch an open conflict with it elsewhere in the Indian Ocean region. This may change if India adopts a more aggressive policy in support of the West’s ‘open sea policy’ in the waters around China.

However, India could become a major target of Chinese anger in the next few years. As India’s economic situation continues to improve with the fall of China, the ideological conflict will intensify. Furthermore, if India is seen as a major recipient of Western technology, the way China is being denied, China will make a point of its economic use rather than military might to halt India’s progress. . It will be important for China to achieve greatness by 2049, to subdue India economically and reduce its image in the eyes of the world.

MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.