The Russian-Ukraine War has demonstrated the importance of energy security, where many European countries were told about new energy participation. The devastating influence of war did not leave Africa despite geographical distances. As the African leaders are re -functioning the energy baskets of their countries, nuclear power is emerging as the driver of this energy change.
Currently, Africa has only one atomic plant, built by a French Consortium, in Kubeberg, South Africa. However, other African countries, including Ghana, Nigeria, Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya and Zambia, are estimating the use of nuclear power to increase power access to their citizens.
According to some estimates, Africa is expected to generate 15,000 MW nuclear power by 2035. Africa’s nuclear power market is ready for significant growth, which represents an investment opportunity of $ 105 billion. Unexpectedly, many countries want a piece of this strategic market.
Scuffle for Africa’s nuclear market
So far, France dominates the nuclear market of Africa. However, it is rapidly losing its impact and struggling to maintain its relevance, especially in Frankone Africa. Meanwhile, since 2023, the United States has been organizing the US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit (USANES). However, it will depend on US President Donald Trump whether and how he wants to proceed with the US nuclear expansion plan in Africa.
Another important player in Africa’s nuclear market, Russia has implemented several agreements with Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso and Burundi. Since July 2022, Russia’s Rosetom L Daba has been building a reactor in Egypt, although progress is slow. Korea Hydro and Khnp, South Korea, along with Hydro and Khnp, have also shown their interest in capturing this unused market. However, the country that is undoubtedly winning the nuclear market is China.
Explain China’s dominance
China’s nuclear ambition is a relatively new event in Africa. In 2012, in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the China Nuclear Energy Authority launched a scholarship program for students from African and South Asian countries wishing to develop national nuclear programs. It served to increase the possibility of purchasing African countries to provide training in Chinese processes and equipment, among other things. Today, China has more than 50 operating reactors. Undoubtedly, China has emerged as an attractive partner for African countries interested in developing nuclear power.
China’s nuclear expansion in Africa is being operated by two large state-owned companies-China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).
In 2024, during the platform on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, Nigeria signed a memorandum (MoU) with China, including the design, construction, operations, upgrading, maintenance and disintegration of nuclear power stations in Nigeria. In the beginning of 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Nigeria further strengthened this cooperation.
At the same summit, Uganda also signed an MoU to build a 2 GW nuclear plant with China. The first unit of 1 GW is expected to be connected to the grid by 2031. Kenya has also planned a research reactor in operation by 2030. While Kenya is still open to the partner country’s own choice, Ghana has selected US-based Nuscale Power and Regnum Technology Group to manufacture its small modular reactors (SMRS).
In West Africa, Jutiya leaders of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali are all pro-Russia governments, and have signed an MoU with Russia on the occasion of Russia-Africa Summit 2023. Although they are required for the Russian atomic Bimoth, Rosatom for themselves, which is required for a neo -power, which is necessary for a nuclear power. War and related sanctions can prevent Russia from investing on such a large scale in Africa from far and wide. It is again most likely that these countries will push, for foreign investment, towards China.
Africa’s nuclear ambition, influence on India
As the global campaign towards cleaner and more efficient energy intensifies, Africa will rapidly consider nuclear power as a panacea for the problem. Therefore, regardless of China and debt net risk, the African countries will look at Chinese financing to support them in their nuclear journey. Today, China is already leading the race in the construction of new nuclear power plants worldwide.
In addition, very few African countries have transmission networks required to obtain and distribute electricity from these nuclear plants. China can also help in creating these transmission networks as “belt and road initiative” under the structure of its plans. If China manages to do so, it will not only enhance its position as a leader in Africa’s clean energy market, but will also confuse its overall dominance in Africa.
As of 30 January, 2025, India’s nuclear production capacity is 8,180 MW. As India aims to generate 100GW nuclear power by 2047, it will be important for India to secure African uranium. In 2009, India signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Namibia. India plans to develop some uranium mining projects in Niger and Namibia. Nevertheless, with an increase in Chinese dominance, it will be difficult for India to enter into the nuclear market of Africa, affecting India’s energy security in a long time.
Sameer Bhattacharya is an associate fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. His X handle is @samirapoliitical
Published – March 29, 2025 12:08 am IST