In India’s reported cases reported in India, it has been reduced by a few in a few days in a day since mid-May 2025. Waste water monitoring data from Indian cities has also reported an increase in Sars-Cov-2 viral load. All this has increased media and public attention due to the experience of Covid-19 in 2020-21. Similar increase in Covid-19 cases is also reported from some other countries and regions of the world including Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and South Korea. Is a new version circulating? What are the reasons for worrying?
The current upper current in cases is currently linked to the most common Sars-Cov-2 version, which is currently a broadcast, a descendant of JN.1, Omikron variants (Ba.1.529). Omikron Sars-Cov-2 has been the last type of concern, the first reported in November 2021. Since then, even though some sub-variants or sub-linjes of Omikron have emerged, in any part of the world, there is no new version of concern.
The current major version, JN.1 (also known as Pirola) is not new and was first reported in Luxembourg in August 2023 and reported from India since November-December 2023. Some sub-linage of JN.1, such as LF.7 and NB.1.8, have also been reported. But so far, there has been no major clinical difference with parents.
Epidemic facts
Why this? The answer lies in the facts of three epidemiology. First of all, any new virus lasts for a long time. Once it enters the population, possibly forever. Sars-Cov-2 is omnipresent in India and other countries, even when no new infection is being reported. In September 2020, Moriama M. And colleagues discussed in scientific journal, annual reviews in virology that the seasonal of respiratory virus has been recognized for thousands of years, and that the annual epidemic of common cold and influenza disease is the most known evidence. The contributing to seasonal is the factors environmental parameters such as temperature and humidity, human behavior and congestion, and viral gene changes to change the stability and transmission rates of the virus.
Sars-Cov-2 is a respiratory virus and is likely to have seasonal patterns. This is just that, so far, the pattern has not been installed in the increase in Kovid -19. Although some figures in Singapore indicate that Kovid -19 cases grow every six to nine months, the weather may vary from one country to another. In India, after the Omikron Wave in January 2022, in early 2023, there were Umikid-19 in cases (due to Omikron sub-linage xbb.1.16), then December 2023 and January 2024, and then in July-August 2024. For India. It is worth noting that the number of cases reported in most seasonal growth has been relatively small and clinical diseases have become lighter.
Also read Wastewater monitoring suggests that covid-19 viral load is increasing
Second, Sars-Cov-2 is a type of RNA virus, which is known for more frequent mutation and genetic changes than other types of viruses. Although the major version is JN.1, there are some new sub-line, which may be behind the upper.
Third, Covid-19 cases in India are revealing real, but after the report of Covid-19 cases in neighboring countries, also due to the increase in covid-19 testing and monitoring. Increased testing means that more people are being tested and thus, finding out.
So if the Indian population has ‘hybrid immunity’ from natural infections and through vaccines, and if it is not a new version, why is there still an optic? The answer is neither a natural infection nor protects against vaccine-inspired fresh infections. Immunity protects moderate to serious diseases and deaths. The case or infection is the only indicator that a person takes Sars-Cov-2 in his nose and throat. However, immunity will ensure that people are not sick or have serious illness. So far, no serious cases of the disease are being reported.
Numbers in perspective
Current uttic is being attracted to higher attention. Even with a spike, 200 to 300 new covid-19 cases in India translate into a new infection for every 45 million to 70 million population. We are not listening to hospitalization due to Covid-19 and the deaths that are being held responsible are one or two days or two.
Let us keep these numbers in perspective. Daily infection occurs in thousands and millions every day due to other diseases. For example, every day, 8,000 new cases of tuberculosis (TB) are being reported in India. If we think in terms of deaths, every day, about 30,000 people in India die due to old age and other health conditions. Every day, approximate 900 people die due to TB, a prevention and healing health status; Another 390 and relatively unheard but widely prevalent vaccine caused by influenza virus disease, 310 deaths respiratory virus (RSV) disease. Air pollution and respiratory diseases cause manifold diseases and deaths. In this background, Covid-19 is just another disease that is much less serious than other health issues, which require more priority.
This is one of the reasons that it is attracting attention, because due to the continuous use of the old, but such relevant tracking parameters such as ‘active cases’, which gives a high number of Covid-19 cases. The approach to ‘active cases’ in the Kovid -19 epidemic was acceptable, when there was no immune against the virus and there was no immunity against the virus, the insecurity lasted for one to two weeks. Therefore, after infection, the immune system requires one to two weeks to activate and clean the virus, causing the process to prolong. However, from then five years later, most individuals have immunity to either vaccines or natural infections to mount a quick and effective defense and thus, even in a day or two are non-infectious. Therefore, it is not understood to count all those who conduct positive tests as an active case.
On vaccination
Additional Covid-19 does not require vaccine doses. In the first three years of Covid-19 (2020–22), the Indian population (all age groups) were conveyed to various types of Sars-Cov-2 including Omikron. Along with this, almost all adults found two or more shots of Covid-19 vaccines. Therefore, there is a ‘hybrid immunity’ against Sars-Cov-2 in the population in our country. Most people were conveyed to the Omikron variants in December 2022 and January 2023. And JN.1, the circulating major version, is from the Omikron family.
It is likely that the antibody level may have gone down and there is reduced immunity. Thus some immune migration is possible for new sub-variants. However, there are special cells in the human immune system called ‘memory cells’ which are largely undesirable, but are programmed to respond to future infections and are likely to protect against serious illness of future. There is no new version of concern to believe in immune migration so far. Scientifically, there is no need and thus there is no recommendation for the additional shots of the Indian population Covid-19 vaccine. Covid-19 is not a concern a concern and is much more effective than the prevention and treatment of any pre-existing health condition ‘additional covid-19’ shots. Thus, high risk people should be vaccinated with flu and other age-appointed recommended vaccines to prevent any comrades.
Currently follows an emerging seasonal pattern of upper Sars-Cov-2 in Kovid-19 in Asia and India. There is no reason to worry. It is necessary for the government to maintain a watch and monitor the trends. Infodemic and misinformation can be a greater danger than in Kovid -19 cases compared to slight increase. For India, for both government and citizens, there should be a balanced approach – neither the danger was underestimated nor the nervousness. An important tool in it is not meant to spread rejected messages and rumors.
Covid-19 requires a rational, epidemiology and balanced approach to reporting and responding to the current and future seasonal spikes. If we consider every spike to be as a adjacent ‘wave’ and as ‘false alarm’, it will stress the health system and the workforce, resulting in reaction to reduce fatigue and reliability.
The reactions to the covid-19 surge should be rational, proportional and reflecting the reality of epidemiology. The current evidence is that from now on, Covid-19 can be considered as any other mild respiratory disease.
Dr. Chandrakant Lahia is a practice doctor and a leading epidemicist and global health experts who have a professional work experience of about 17 years with the World Health Organization and other United Nations agencies.
Published – June 03, 2025 12:16 AM IST