Cyber ​​attacks, misinformation: the many fronts of Russia’s hybrid war in Ukraine

A US official warned on Friday that Russia plans to discourage Ukrainian troops with false reports about a widespread surrender of Ukrainian troops. Throughout the month US intelligence has warned of a number of propaganda and panic-inducing misinformation strategies that could have long-term effects. Authorities accused the financial blog Zero Hedge of publishing propaganda articles created by Russia-controlled media. They also released declassified intelligence showing that Moscow planned to use false videos as justification for the attack, including scenes of a staged, false explosions with corpses, depicting mourners. Actors and images of destroyed buildings and military equipment are included. Looks like no video has been released.

The denial-of-service attack distributed on Wednesday on the websites of major government and financial institutions was short-lived. However, more destructive cyber attacks in the traditional sense—wiper software, ransomware, and other malware—can have long-term or delayed effects on the stability of a country.

There have been no known infrastructure or system attacks in this conflict that have so far caused irreparable damage. Some experts at the WSJ CIO Network Summit warned companies to prepare for phishing and password-spray attacks, which recycle passwords from past password data dumps to access corporate networks.

John Hultquist, director of intelligence analysis at US-based cyber intelligence firm Mandient, said major Russia-linked attacks have typically either disrupted critical infrastructure, causing widespread impact, either through supply-chain hacks or The strategic web is up to compromise. Victim scores. Recent activity in Ukraine so far lacks one of those components, although it is possible that those elements are present but not yet activated, he said.

It is not always clear who is responsible for these actions, but US and Ukrainian officials have linked several recent attacks to Russian military or Kremlin-funded operators. According to the Congressional Research Service, Russia’s security agencies compete with each other, and often conduct similar operations on the same target, making it difficult to assess specific characteristics and motivations. There are two primary cyber units operated by Russia’s military intelligence agency. Online propaganda and psychological actions are handled by a separate specialized service unit. And the military also controls several research institutes that help develop hacking tools and malware. The Internet Research Agency is headed by a close aide of President Vladimir Putin. The EU is sanctioning the private company because of its role in allegedly spreading misinformation about Ukraine and the current crisis.

The Harvard Belfer National Cyber ​​Power Index, published in 2020 by the China Cyber ​​Policy Initiative, is useful in comparing Russia with other world powers. The index defines the broadest cyber power as “a country that (1) intends to use cyber tools to advance multiple national objectives and (2) has the capacity to achieve those objectives.”

The index weighs two metrics: capacity and intent. Capability considers all aspects, both proven and potential, under the control of the government as well as the private sector. The analysis equally weighs the intent of the seven objectives.

In this index, Russia scores low on defence, norms and commercial intent, weighing its higher scores in surveillance, control and offense. Aggressive cyber operations that can destroy or disable an adversary’s infrastructure and capabilities are responsible for only some of the cyberattacks and misinformation tactics that Russia has used in Ukraine so far.