Daily ‘dangerous’ heatwaves likely to take hold in the tropics by 2100: study

The study finds that in the most likely scenario, the world would miss those goals – potentially subjecting people in tropical regions to harmful temperatures for most days of every typical year.

If emissions go unchecked, large numbers of people in these areas could face potential “nightmares”. Excessive heat,

Lead author Lucas Vargas Zepatello said, “There’s a possibility that if we don’t work together, billions of people will be at really extreme exposure to these extremely dangerous temperatures, which we haven’t seen fundamentally.” ” of Harvard University.

Severe heat waves – warmer and more frequent than climate change – are already being felt around the world, threatening human health, wildlife and crop yields.

Most climate projections predict temperature increases under different policy scenarios, but do not specify which of these routes is more likely.

In this study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, researchers estimate the potential exposure to dangerous heat and humidity.

They used statistical estimates to predict the levels of carbon dioxide emissions from human activity and the resulting levels of global warming.

They found that many people in the tropics could face dangerous heat levels for half a year by the end of the century, even though the world set temperatures below two degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels in the Paris climate agreement. limited to the target. Level.

Outside the tropics, he said deadly heat waves would become an annual occurrence.

The researchers used a heat index that puts the “hazardous” level at 39.4C, while temperatures above 51C are considered “extremely dangerous” and completely unsafe for humans.

Zappetello said that Extreme Measure was originally developed for people working in hot indoor environments, like a ship’s boiler room, and is rarely seen outside.

But by the turn of the century, the researcher said it was “virtually guaranteed” that people in parts of the tropics would experience this level of heat every year, unless emissions were cut severely, particularly. in the regions of sub-Saharan Africa and India. risk.

“It’s very scary,” he told AFP, adding that even walking outside would be dangerous in those circumstances.

‘Nightmare’ status –

The Earth has warmed by about 1.2C by now and current predictions based on countries’ carbon-cutting promises will see the world far exceeding the 2C target of the Paris Agreement by 2100, let alone its more ambitious 1.5C aspiration.

In their research, Zepatello and his colleagues analyzed predictions from global climate models, human population estimates, and looked at the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions.

He estimated there is only a 0.1 percent chance of limiting global average warming to 1.5C by 2100, estimating that the world is likely to reach 1.8C by 2050.

In 2100, the researchers found, the most likely global average temperature rise would be 3C, which Zapatello said would be a “nightmare” situation for many.

In a worst-case scenario, in which emissions remain uncontrolled, he said extreme temperatures in parts of the tropics could last up to two months each year.

But he said it depends on how fast humanity moves can cut emissions,

“We don’t need to go into that world. Right now there’s nothing that says it’s certain, but people need to be aware of how dangerous it will be if it comes to pass,” he Told.

The researchers said all scenarios could lead to a large increase in heat-related illnesses, especially among the elderly, frail and those working outside.

“I think this is a very important point that is getting very little attention,” said Kristin Aunon, a research professor specializing in emissions and human health at the Center for International Climate Research, who was not involved in the study. .

“Decreased ability to work in an outdoor environment can have major economic impacts in addition to the human suffering arising from working in extreme temperatures,” he told AFP, adding that temperature extremes also affect crop production and livestock. limits can be affected.

This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed.

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