Deaths during the pandemic: Relatives and burial staff wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) carry the body of a person who died due to the coronavirus disease, at a cemetery in Chennai. , Photo Credit: Jyoti Ramalingam B
Counting the dead is a difficult task, especially in India. The country accounts for about 17% of deaths worldwide, but still does not have a system that can accurately count the number of deaths. When Civil Registration System (CRS) and sample registration systems (SRS) measure mortality, both of which have their limitations.
CRS records important events like births, deaths and still births at the place of occurrence. But not all deaths are registered in India and a significant number are registered after the stipulated deadline of 21 days. The SRS is a large-scale survey that provides an estimate of the death rate or number of deaths per 1,000 of the population. While the SRS is considered to be far more reliable, reports suggest that deaths registered in many states exceed the estimates provided by the SRS.
The SRS Statistical Report 2020, released in September, has once again raised questions on India’s death rate estimates. The report said the death rate in 2020 was 6.0 per 1,000. In a year affected by the pandemic, the estimated death rate remained unchanged from 6.0 in 2019.
In contrast, the CRS showed that India had an estimated 8.2 lakh mass deaths The excess deaths in 2020 were calculated as the difference between the number of deaths registered in 2020 and the average number of deaths registered in 2018 and 2019. The deaths were 5.5 times the number of official COVID-19 deaths recorded in 2020. Table 1 Lists the state-wise average number of deaths registered in 2018 and 2019, deaths in 2020, excess deaths, official COVID-19 deaths, and undercount factors for 2020. States such as Bihar, Maharashtra and West Bengal had a high burden of excess mortality. , but when compared with the official COVID-19 toll, Bihar, Assam and Madhya Pradesh had the highest undercount factor. There are also problems with CRS numbers – some states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have historically had lower registration rates than other states. In Uttar Pradesh, in particular, there was a sudden drop in registered deaths in 2020.
The average number of deaths and deaths registered in 2020 is in lakhs. UF stands for Undercount Factor. Mah means Maharashtra, Ch means Chhattisgarh and Jha means Jharkhand
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While the CRS shows a higher death rate, the SRS, which is also used to assess the completeness of registration in the CRS, failed to capture this despite the increase in death rates for males and females. According to SRS’ ‘Table 13: Annual Estimates of Mortality Rates by Gender, India and Large States/UTs, 2015-20’, the mortality rate increased from 6.5 to 6.6 for men and 5.0 for women in 2020. Done 5.4. However, the total death rate stood at 6.0. Similar discrepancies were observed in states like Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Himachal Pradesh. All three registered a decline in the overall death rate in 2020, while both men and women saw an increase in death rates. For example, in Himachal Pradesh, the death rate for men increased from 7.1 to 8.1 and for women from 3.9 to 5.5, but the overall death rate declined from 6.9 to 6.8 in 2020. In Karnataka, the death rate remained stable. Because in 2020 the female mortality rate has increased significantly. Table 2 Shows state wise total male and female death rates in 2019 and 2020.
DR stands for Mortality Rate in the table
The other glaring discrepancy lies in the SRS’s estimate of female mortality in 2020. While the figures in the detailed table on page 301 show an increase, a chart on page ‘xxii’ shows a decline in the female mortality rate in 2020. chart 3, Which is a replica of the chart presented in the report showing the total, male and female mortality rates.
Discrepancies in the death estimates provided by the reports raise questions about the accuracy and quality of the SRS reports and further complicate the exercise of estimating COVID-19 death figures.
nihalani.j@thehindu.co.in
Source: SRS Statistical Report 2020
Following publication of this article in the October 4, 2022 edition, a reader pointed out that the discrepancy (an increase in death rates for men and women but a decline in overall death rates) was due to an error in data published in 2019. The Hindu Data team has also independently confirmed this claim by SRS report. Table No. 13, which provides death rates by sex for India and large states for the period 2015-2020, used incorrect data for 2019. Rural and urban death rates as provided in ‘Table No. 8’ (the table mentions age-specific deaths) by gender and residence in the 2019 report (page 268 onwards) male and female death rates by location The year-wise mortality rates were summarized in Table No. 13. However, the figures for 2020 appear to be correct.
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