It would be wise not to decide on the outcome of the general election on the basis of assembly election results.
Voting in five states of India in early 2022. And by the end of this year, assembly elections will also be held in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Since then Uttar PradeshLargest state in terms of number of Lok Sabha seats, with elections in early 2022 Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa And Manipur – this round Assembly elections The final (Lok Sabha or general election) to be held in 2024 is being referred to as the semi-final. Like any match, winning the semi-finals will guarantee a place to play in the final, although it does not guarantee a win in a final match.
The election decisions of the seven states in which elections are to be held this year (2022) will give us an idea of which party has the largest support base in which state; But these results may not be an indicator of what could happen in 2024. There will be several state elections in 2023 which will be very close to 2024. There have been phases in the Indian elections when people have chosen the same party to run the state government. Well as central government, but it is a trend which is no longer in current politics. In the last five years, there have been many elections such as Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Bihar, when voters have voted very differently for the state government and during the Lok Sabha elections. There is no evidence to suggest that these patterns may have changed over the years. So, in my opinion, the verdict of the state assembly elections will not be an indicator of what might happen in 2024. In fact, to reiterate what I have said earlier, one should refrain from deciding about the likely outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha. Assembly elections based on the results of these assembly elections.
in Uttar Pradesh
But that does not mean that the decision of these assembly elections will have no effect on how politics in India may shape in the coming years. For example, if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerges victorious in Uttar Pradesh, it will certainly increase the chances of the BJP winning the 2024 Lok Sabha election; Such a result will also increase the stature of Current Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath within the party. Conversely, the defeat of the BJP will dilute its prospects in 2024 and affect Mr. Adityanath.
The decision of these assembly elections will have an impact on other political parties as well: Indian National CongressAam Aadmi Party (AAP) Trinamool Congress (TMC)Samajwadi Party and Bahujan samaj party, Of the seven states where elections are due, the Congress is the ruling party in Punjab, but the main opposition party in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa and Manipur. Winning some of these states will be crucial for the Congress if it is to instil confidence in its leadership and morale among its supporters to keep the party’s hopes up for the main battle in 2024. The best bet for the Congress is to do well. It will be in the states of Punjab (where it is defending its government) and Uttarakhand and Goa where it is the main opposition party.
In Uttarakhand, the government has changed every five years since the state came into existence. With the BJP in power there for the last five years, all eyes are on the prospects of the Congress. But elections are won by mobilizing the mass base and not by any fixed rule. Such rules have been broken occasionally over the years, most recently in Kerala.
AAP as a factor
Congress too has cut its work fighting the BJP as AAP now has a strong presence in state politics; This is likely to help it garner some anti-BJP votes, which in turn will threaten the prospects of the Congress. In Goa, the Congress has lost its shape since the last assembly elections; Many of its MLAs have joined other parties – mainly the BJP and the TMC. In view of this situation, Congress is getting tough competition in Goa. In terms of elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, and in the event of a bi-polar contest, the Congress has a good chance of winning. But one must not forget that he will have to face a very strong political force, the BJP. Being the home state of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP would like to retain Gujarat at any cost. The question is, does the Congress have its own home to defeat the BJP in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh? Looking at the state-specific scenarios, 2022 is definitely going to be a challenge for the Congress.
The AAP is also working hard to expand its base in various states if the political vacuum created by the decline in Congress’s support base is trying to replace the Congress as the main opposition party at the national level. Is. many states. A lot will depend on how you perform in Punjab and other states. The victory in Punjab will certainly boost the party’s prospects and provide its leader Arvind Kejriwal with a wider platform to emerge as a big player in national politics.
TMC too
Another leader who is expected to play a bigger role in national politics is West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee. After TMC’s thumping victory in West Bengal Assembly elections last year, TMC is also another party trying to expand its base in other states. Party Congress has been successful in attracting former Goa Chief Minister Luizinho Faleiro, Mahila Congress President Sushmita Dev, Kirti Azad (Bihar), former Haryana Congress President Ashok Tanwar (Haryana) and various leaders of other political parties from Uttar Pradesh. Congress leaders Rajesh Pati Tripathi and Lalitesh Pati Tripathi. Other political leaps have also been made in the BJP government by former finance minister Yashwant Sinha, former Union minister and BJP MP Babul Supriyo, BJP leader Mukul Roy along with his son Subhranshu and former Janata Dal (United) MP Pavan K Verma.
These defections in TMC are an indication of where the wind is blowing. But the TMC will need to make its presence felt in some states in these assembly elections if Ms. Banerjee is to claim as the leader (albeit unofficial) who must be unanimous among the opposition parties to challenge the candidate. BJP in 2024. TMC is working hard to challenge the two established political parties in Goa, BJP and Congress. But one needs to wait and see what kind of impact TMC can make in these elections in Goa.
The stage for the 2022 assembly elections and what impact it might have on Indian politics is wide open. We need to wait and see how things unfold in the coming months and in the next two years ahead of the final match in 2024.
Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Political Analyst at the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Views expressed are personal
,