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TeaThe sudden and tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defense Staff, General Bipin Rawat and twelve others helicopter crash There is a mortal blow from the hand of fate. Ironically, the demise of the CDS is also echoed in the fate of some senior military leaders, who may find themselves either advantaged or disadvantaged in terms of career progression. Depending on who is appointed from among the worthy, a chain reaction along the military hierarchy could alter personal fortunes.
The eligibility for the post of CDS is shaped to provide political leadership to choose from a wide range of options in two domains- serving and retired. External choice is not limited to former chiefs over the age of sixty-five. The interior option can also be three star. So technically, serving three or four stars are all characters. This is as wide a choice as can be. So, by the time the appointment is announced, speculation and conspiracy theories can be expected to cause a riot.
Read also: After General Bipin Rawat is gone, this is why it is important for Modi to choose the right CDS
India cannot tolerate delay in appointments
It has been almost a week since the post of CDS was vacant and till now there is no announcement about who is working on this post.
By default, it appears that none of the many hats worn by the CDS solicit any sense of urgency by the permanent incumbent. Such an approach ignores the critical advisory role of the CDS as well as the operational role he plays as the permanent chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (PC-COSC). Furthermore, given the trajectory of geopolitical tensions that plague India’s strategic landscape, the country’s defense modernization is lagging behind and there is no time to lose. With the CDS being the central figure who can provide direction and set the pace for military reforms, the post should be left vacant only for the time being, the inevitable process required for political selection. However, for operational reasons, there can be no justification for not appointing a substitute CDS.
The caretaker CDS is important because of the operational cap he wears – that of the permanent chairman which includes leading the apex body where inter-service planning and coordination is done. If a security crisis occurs, the PC-COSC’s absence will certainly make coordinated planning difficult, as there is no officially designated successor, although the senior-most chief can be designated as the first among equals. But such ad-hoc moves may prove to be an ineffective option as the crisis can escalate at a speed previously unimaginable. Both cyber and space can play the role of accelerators.
Possible reasons for delay
The delay in the announcement of the next CDS may be due to a deep search by the political leadership among all eligible retired and serving officers. If the selection is made from amongst the former Chiefs of Services, the eligibility due to age criteria is limited to two service chiefs who have retired shortly: Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria and Admiral KB Singh. Bhadauria’s appointment bent the rules as he was technically ineligible, as he was retiring on the same day as Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa. if the same principle was implemented, Vice Admiral Chawla, who retired on the same day as Admiral KB Singh, should have become the Navy Chief. Therefore, it appears that political patronage has played a more important role than seniority. If the search is about finding a CDS whose advice and actions can be expected to be consistent and convergent with the government, Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria may be at the forefront.
Admiral KB Singh retired only on 30 November and should definitely be on the list. He is not known to be easily lured into the lure of political patronage. If the government were to choose one of the retired chiefs and generosity is not a feature in consideration, he could be a top choice.
If the choice is made from among the serving chiefs, then Army Chief General Naravane is ahead of the pack as the other two chiefs assumed the responsibility only less than three months ago. He should have at least been a natural choice, but the fact that he was not officially appointed acting CDS may indicate some degree of reluctance by the political leadership. The real reason for reluctance is difficult to assess.
Although all serving lieutenant generals are technically qualified, there will not be much appetite for deeper selection as it may create unacceptable turmoil in the military hierarchy where seniority cannot be easily overlooked.
The selection of the CDS will require the approval of the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC). The committee was reconstituted in 2016 and now has only two members – the Prime Minister and the Home Minister.
In terms of the procedure to be followed, the Defense Ministry has to initiate the file and provide a panel of three. It is possible that the MOD is waiting for instructions from above to configure the process that proceeds the choice.
From the author’s point of view the choice for the panel is three-fold. Panel A can have up to three serving heads. Panel B may have the Army Chief, Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria and Admiral KB Singh. Panel C can be a combination of two serving chiefs and one retired chief. The army chief will be all involved and hence, tells his own story. If someone else is made CDS, the only reason would be that he/she did not pass the loyalty test. This is a topic that I will consider in the coming weeks.
Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (Retd) Director, Strategic Studies Programme, Taxila Institute; Former Military Adviser, National Security Council Secretariat. He tweeted @prakashmenon51. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Choubey)
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