Chance of rain in Delhi on Thursday
Delhi Monsoon Rains: Officials of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that Delhi is likely to receive its first monsoon rains on June 30 or July 1. The southwest monsoon usually arrives in the national capital on June 27.
IMD Senior Scientist RK Jenamani said good rains have been predicted in the city on June 30 and the arrival of monsoon may be announced on Thursday or Friday.
Conditions are favorable for further advance of Monsoon into Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh in the next 24 hours. He said easterly winds, moisture infiltration and convective activity have increased over the region.
“We expect conditions to remain favorable for further advance of Monsoon into remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi in the next 48 hours,” the senior meteorologist said.
Jenamani said the high humidity added to the trouble in the last few days, though the temperature hovered around 41-42 degrees Celsius.
Orange alert issued
Pre-Monsoon convection may bring light rain and respite from the heat in the national capital on Wednesday evening. He said that the IMD has issued an orange alert on June 30, warning of moderate rain in the city. By July 1, the maximum temperature will drop to 33-34 degree Celsius.
Last year, the IMD had predicted that the monsoon would reach Delhi about two weeks before its normal date, June 27. However, it only reached the capital on 13 July, making it the most delayed in 19 years. The monsoon had entered the “break” phase and made almost no progress from June 20 to July 8.
When asked about the delay in the arrival of monsoon in Delhi, the senior scientist said that a gap of about five days is considered normal. “However, we did not see any major weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal (which could advance the monsoon). This year, it has been a predominantly wind-driven monsoon,” he said.
Chances of good rain in first 10 days
According to IMD data, in the last 62 years, monsoon covered Delhi 29 times in June and 33 times in July. The IMD had extended the date of arrival of monsoon in Delhi in 2020 from June 29 to June 27.
Meteorologists have said that Delhi is expected to receive good rains in the first 10 days of monsoon.
Delhi has received only 72.5 mm of rain since March 1 this year, while the normal 111.9 mm of rain has been received due to the lack of a western disturbance. The city recorded no rain in March and saw a modest 0.3 mm of rainfall in April against the monthly average of 12.2 mm.
The scant rainfall added to the heat, with the capital recording the second warmest April of this year since 1951, with a monthly average maximum temperature of 40.2 °C. Due to prolonged heatwave, the maximum temperature reached 49 degree Celsius in some parts of Delhi in May.
According to IMD data, the capital has recorded a maximum temperature of 42 degrees Celsius and above in 27 days so far this summer, the highest since 2012. In 2012, the city recorded a maximum temperature of 42 °C or more in 30 days.
Since June 1, when the monsoon season begins, Delhi has received just 24.5 mm of rain as against the normal 64.1 mm. All this came between June 16 and June 20. However, a bountiful monsoon is expected to cover the rain deficit in the first week of July and provide respite from the heat, according to Mahesh Palawat, vice president (climate change and meteorology), Skymet Weather.
Palawat said that a significant increase in the moisture level, easterly winds and good rains for two consecutive days indicate the arrival of monsoon. Palawat said, “Last year, the onset of monsoon in Delhi was not good. However, this time we are expecting good rains for the first two to three days.” The closed rain will continue”.
“There may be a drop in rainfall on July 2-3, but a prolonged dry spell has been ruled out,” he said.
The IMD had announced the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala on 29 May. After its onset over Kerala, the progress of monsoon has been slow.
The northern boundary of the southwest monsoon, which is the northernmost limit on a given day, passed through Ratlam, Shivpuri, Rewa and Churk on Tuesday.
The IMD said that conditions are favorable for further advance of Monsoon into remaining parts of Bihar, some more parts of Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours.
Read more: Monsoon Weather Updates: Rain continues in Maharashtra, Kerala