IIt is not surprising that Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has refused to project anyone as the prime ministerial candidate for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. His statement is more pragmatic in nature and should be seen as an open admission of the fact that there can be no opposition unity under the umbrella of the Congress. Talks of opposition unity, leaders coming together on one pretext or the other, and issuing statements affirming a united fight against the BJP have become a ritual as the general elections approach. Hence, all talk of opposition unity for the 2024 election, a short-lived ritual, has begun.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, whose birthday provided an opportunity for opposition leaders to gather in Chennai, has rejected the idea of a Third Front. “Ideas for a third front are futile,” that is informed of Where is it? For the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which has partnered and shared power at the Center with both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led UPA, a third front may not be an option as such a front would Least likely to get in. , By staying out of such a front and yet calling for opposition unity, parties like the DMK have a better chance of winning enough seats to gain bargaining power.
Total Lok Sabha Strength All such parties talking of opposition unity do not exceed about 200, with only seven parties other than the Congress having a double-digit strength. Of these seven parties, the status of the Shiv Sena is unknown as the Election Commission has recognized the rebel faction as the official Shiv Sena, which coincidentally holds power in Maharashtra along with the BJP. Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have not been part of any opposition unity talks so far. He is likely to stay away from such a platform.
Anyway, the chances of BSP getting ‘bargain seats’ in Uttar Pradesh are looking bleak. The BJD also seems to be in no mood to join the opposition and share its seats with parties that have no base in the state. The National Conference (NC), whose leaders were meeting the Congress and the DMK at a birthday party in Chennai, has no constituencies outside Jammu and Kashmir. NC’s Abdullah may face trouble even in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections. One should not be surprised if the breakaway faction from the Congress led by Ghulam Nabi Azad manages to gain a political foothold in Jammu and Kashmir and win a seat or two in the Lok Sabha. Anyway, it is unlikely that such breakaway parties and leaders will reveal their cards anytime before the election dates are announced. They would love to keep each side guessing and come to the bargaining table at the last minute.
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Why opposition unity is impossible
Repeated attempts to forge a united platform against the ruling party have failed to produce the desired electoral results. In fact, it succeeded only when the opposition parties to the Congress came together after the Emergency in 1977. But many of these parties, which united under the banner of Jayaprakash Narayan’s movement, merged into a single Janata Party. But soon the so-called ‘opposition unity’ disintegrated and went in different directions. Some of them found new seats to win, but none could ever graduate to becoming a national party, except for the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, which later became the BJP in 1980.
The logic is that only around 36 per cent people have voted for BJP (2019 election) and hence rest 64 per cent people can be brought together to vote against BJP if anti-BJP parties field a single candidate. This is naive thinking to say the least. Every state, in fact, every constituency behaves differently at different times. While opposition unity worked against the Congress after the excesses of the Emergency were made public, in 1984, after the tragic assassination of Indira Gandhi, the Congress was able to garner almost 50 per cent of the total vote. Therefore, the logic of ‘what is important is not who wins but who is defeated’ will not enthuse voters to vote against the BJP.
Backed by a strong cadre base organization under the joint leadership of a charismatic prime minister and a strategist home minister, it is difficult to separate the BJP from the “birthday party gangs”. There was a time when Congress was seen as a national alternative to BJP. But led by a “gradual failure”, the party has lost its primacy as an umbrella for anti-BJP parties to form alliances. No regional party would like to share its local strength with the Congress fast moving towards the dustbin of history.
A faceless opposition with no common minimum programme, pan-India presence and attractive pro-people alternative agenda will hog headlines for a few days and be forgotten before the 2024 election race begins.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweeted @sesadrichari. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)