Europe faces prolonged ‘twindemic’ risk as flu returns this year

The lockdowns, mask-wearing and social distancing that have become the norm in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic outlasted the flu, which kills around 650,000 a year globally, according to EU data.

But now that has changed as countries adopt less strict measures to fight COVID-19 due to widespread vaccination.

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported this month that since mid-December, flu viruses have been spreading in Europe at a higher rate than expected.

Data from the ECDC and the World Health Organization showed that in December, the number of flu cases in European intensive care units (ICUs) rose steadily to 43 in the last week of the year.

This is well below pre-pandemic levels – with weekly flu cases For example, in 2018 those in the ICU peaked at over 400 in a single stage.

But it’s a big increase from last year, when there was only one flu case in an ICU throughout December, the figures show.

The return of the virus could be the start of an unusually long flu season that could extend well into the summer, Pasi Pantinen, the ECDC’s top expert on influenza, told Reuters.

“If we start lifting all measures, the big concern I have for influenza is that, because we have almost no prevalence in the European population, perhaps we will move away from the normal seasonal pattern,” he said.

He said the end of the restrictive measures in the spring could lead to a far greater spread of flu than the normal end of the European season in May.

The ECDC said in its report that a “twindemic” could put immense strain on already stretched health systems.

In France, three regions, including the Paris region, are facing flu pandemics, according to data published last week by the French Ministry of Health. Others are in a pre-pandemic stage.

This season, France has recorded 72 severe flu cases so far, with six people dying.

major stress

Further complicating matters, the major flu strain that has been circulating this year so far appears to be the H3 of the A virus, which usually causes the most severe cases in the elderly.

Pantinen said it was too early to make a final evaluation of flu vaccines because real-world analysis required large numbers of sick patients. But laboratory tests show that the vaccines available this year are “not going to be optimal” against H3.

That’s largely because little or no virus was circulating when vaccines were structured last year, making it hard for vaccine makers to predict which strain will be dominant in the coming flu season.

Vaccines Europe, which represents the top vaccine makers in the region, acknowledged that strain selection was made more difficult by the very low flu circulation last year, but said it needed to assess the effectiveness of this season’s shots. There was not yet sufficient data for

Flu vaccines are adapted to be as effective as possible against the flu virus that changes every year. Their composition is determined six months before the start of the flu season, based on the circulation of viruses in the opposite hemisphere. It gives drug makers time to develop and make shots.

Europe-wide data on getting the flu vaccine is not yet available. But national figures from France show that coverage is not as widespread as officials had hoped.

The authorities there extended the vaccination period by a month to the end of February to promote vaccination. According to the data released last week, 12 million people have been vaccinated so far, which is about 45% of the target population.

“There is still a huge room for improvement to limit the impact of the flu pandemic,” the health ministry said in a statement on January 11. This year’s goal is to vaccinate 75% of those at risk.

Vaccines Europe said the industry has supplied a large number of flu shots despite pressure on production facilities triggered by the pandemic.