Exit Poll Results 2024: 6 shocking elections when predictions proved horribly wrong | Mint

The voting for the 90 seats of Haryana Assembly Elections will end at 6 pm today, October 5.

Soon after the last vote is polled, exit polls by different agencies will start releasing numbers predicting the anticipated winners and the margin of their victory for assembly elections in Haryana as well as Jammu and Kashmir held in three phases recently. 

The results of both assembly elections will be declared on October 8.

The exit poll predictions are based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the polling. While the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has faced scrutiny in the past.

When are exit polls out?

The Election Commission of India prohibits conducting exit polls during the voting process, but they are allowed to be published 30 minutes after the last vote is cast. As per the rules, exit poll data cannot be released before 6:30 pm today, October 5 – the day of polling for Haryana Assembly Elections.

This is governed by Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951. “No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard,” reads the Section 126A of the RP Act, 1951.

The exit poll results generate a lot of interest before the actual result day, their inaccuracy in the recent elections notwithstanding. Here are six glaring examples where exit poll predictions turned out way too off the mark when the actual results were declared.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024

At least 12 exit polls had predicted a landslide win for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. India Today- Axis My India, for example predicted 361-401 seats to NDA, the News 24-Today’s Chanakya said NDA will get 400 seats. the survey by ABP News-C Voter gave anywhere between 353-383 seats to NDA while Republic Bharat- P Marq predicted that NDA will get 359 seats.

And as it turned out, the BJP-led NDA finished with just 293 seats when the actual results came. And in fact, unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP failed to win simple majority on its own and won 240 seats losing 63 seats from the 303 seats they previously held since 2019.

The Congress-led INDIA bloc bagged 235 seats proving most of the exit polls inaccurate.

Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2023

The BJP wrested back control of Chhattisgarh from the Congress party by securing a victory in 2023 assembly polls defying all exit poll predictions in the tribal state.

The saffron party won 54 seats in the 90-member house ousting the Congress, which had come to power in 2018 after ending the 15-year rule of BJP’s Raman Singh.

Lok Sabha Elections 2019

In 2019, the majority of the exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led NDA would return to power. The exit polls were not off the mark this time as BJP-led NDA bagged 353 seats. The BJP alone secured 303 out of the total 543 seats. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 90 seats.

India Today-Axis My India had predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA with seats anywhere between 339 and 365 seats while it predicted the UPA to win 77-108 seats. The News24-Todays Chanakya also said said that the NDA would win about 350 seats while the UPA will win 95 seats.

UP Assembly Elections 2017

Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2017 were held soon after November 2016 demonitisation decision by Modi government. All exit polls predicted a hung assembly, with BJP as the largest party.

Yet again, the results defied the exit poll predictions and the BJP won an overwhelming 325 seats in the 403-member house. Yogi Adityanath, who had been Gorakhpur MP till then, became the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh for the first time

2015 Bihar- Delhi Assembly Election

The Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 gave a decisive victory to the RJD-JDU-Congress Mahagathbandhan alliance, with RJD emerging as the largest party. The results defied all exit polls which indicated a tight race with no clear majority in Bihar.

Similarly in Delhi assembly election 2015, exit polls painted a mixed picture, with most of them predicting a majority for Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party. None, however, predicted that AAP would win brute majority by bagging 67 seats in the 70-member Delhi house.

Lok Sabha Elections 2014

The BJP-led NDA alliance toppled the Congress-led UPA government in 2014 Lok Sabha elections with a landslide victory. The NDA won 336 seats, whereas the Congress-led UPA won 60 seats.

The exit polls had predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA but falling short of a majority. Most exit polls estimated NDA seats between 261 and 289. The actual result, however, exceeded exit poll predictions.

Lok Sabha Elections 2004

In 2004, all exit polls had predicted a comfortable victory for BJP-led NDA with seats anywhere between 240 to 275. Buoyed by wins in state assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had called for early elections with the campaign slogan “India Shining.”

And when the results came the NDA secured only 187 seats, while the Congress and its allies won 216 seats paving way for UPA-I government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.