Far From Far: On the Israel Missile Attack on Syria

Tuesday’s missile attack on Syria’s Latakia port is another reminder that the conflict in the Arab country is not over yet. It is the second attack in weeks on Latakia, one of Syria’s busiest ports, and Damascus has blamed Israel on both occasions. Israeli officials have neither confirmed nor denied the allegations, but it is a fact that Israel has carried out air and missile strikes inside Syria in recent years. After the attack on Latakia in early December, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said, “We are pushing back the evil forces of the region day and night.” The multifaceted Syrian crisis has evolved over the years. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with help from Russia and Iran, has defeated most of the rebel groups and captured almost all of the lost territory except Idlib. But Mr. Assad’s clear victory did not end the conflict. When Iran, which supplied Mr Assad with men and weapons, made an impact in the country, Israel, which has been occupying Syria’s Golan Heights for decades, saw it as a security threat. Russia, whose primary focus in Syria is on the survival of the Assad regime and the security of its own troops and assets stationed there, has largely stayed away from the Iran-Israel Cold War. This gives Israel a free hand in Syria to target Iranian and Hezbollah shipments.

However, there are two major problems with the Israeli approach. One, the repeated attacks are a blatant violation of Syria’s sovereignty. Israel, which has hardly upheld international norms and laws in its security policies, is setting another bad precedent. Second, civil war-ravaged Syria is emerging as a new frontier in the Israel-Iran conflict. In recent years, Israel has reportedly carried out sabotage activities inside Iran and killed Iranian nuclear scientists. In return, Iran has attacked ships affiliated with Israel in the Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea and increased supplies to Shia rebel groups in the region. The Latakia strike comes at a time when international powers are trying to revive the Iran nuclear deal after 2018. If these efforts fail and Iran moves forward with its nuclear program, the potential for an Israel-Iran military conflict will increase. Israel has already said that all options are on the table to “prevent” Iran from going nuclear. So, Syria appears to be a pawn in this game among the major powers of West Asia. Weakened by civil war and dependent on Iran and Russia for survival, Damascus lacks the political will and resources to either block Iran’s influence or deter an Israeli attack. For Syria to see relative peace, there must be a dial-down in tensions between Israel and Iran. A good start would be the revival of the nuclear deal.