fragmented world order, monolithic nation

*Almost three weeks after the Russian war on Ukraine, the cost to India is yet to be calculated. While some are focusing on how India’s refusal to criticize Russia’s actions, and its strict restraint at the United Nations, its relations with the West and its Quad partners (the United States, Australia and Japan) Looking at the other economic costs that the unprecedented sanctions from the US and the EU will incur on Indian trade, energy and defense purchases. However, apart from the disastrous consequences for the Ukrainian nation, what worries New Delhi and other like-minded countries the most is the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global world order, which is fragmented globally. Interrelationship – in the context of international cooperation, security, military use, economic systems and even cultural ties.

United Nations and Security Council

First, the global order is broken and the events in Ukraine have exposed the United Nations and the Security Council to their utter incompetence. Russia’s actions in Ukraine, in terms of refusal to take international mandates, may seem no different from the war by the United States in Iraq in 2003, the Israeli bombing of Lebanon in 2006, and the Saudi-aligned attacks on Yemen in 2015.

But Ukraine is actually a bigger blow to the post-world war system than any other. Direct missile strikes and bombings of Ukrainian cities every day, causing both military and civilian casualties, and the creation of millions of refugees, run counter to every line of the preamble of the United Nations Charter, namely “To protect successful generations from the scourge of war.” for…”, “to practice tolerance and to live at peace with one another as good neighbors”, as well as Articles 1 and 2 (Chapter 1) of the ‘Objectives and Principles’ of the United Nations,

The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin aired his decision to “start a military operation” on Ukraine at the same time that the Russian envoy to the United Nations was presiding over a UN Security Council discussion on the Ukraine crisis is respected. Speaks volumes for P- 5 felt for member proceedings. A vote of the International Commons, or United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which rejected Moscow’s actions, was thus scuttled when the US on its decision to move the UN General Assembly vote in 2017 It was easier than losing. US Embassy in Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, in their responses, other P-5 members such as the United States, the United Kingdom and France did not seek to strengthen the global order, imposing unilateral sanctions instead attempting to bring them to the United Nations. Obviously, Russia would have vetoed any punitive measure, but that should not have stopped the effort. Nor is the increase in arms transfers to Ukraine a vote of confidence in the power of the United Nations to effect a ceasefire.

where nuclear safety measures

The next point is Russian negligence regarding nuclear security in a country that has been worst affected by poor security and planning after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster (when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union), a challenge to the global nuclear order. . , Following the detonation of the US atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, an alarming absurdity of security measures in the decades since, areas near Chernobyl and the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (Europe’s largest) have been targeted by shell buildings. For the moves of the Russian army. Establishment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1956. The world must also consider the cost of the nuclear non-proliferation regime’s credibility: Ukraine and Libya, which voluntarily gave up nuclear programs, are invaded, while regimes such as Iran and North Korea may disregard the global order because of their nuclear deterrence. has been maintained.

There are also covenants agreed during the Global War on Terrorism, which have been discredited with the use of non-state actors in the Ukraine crisis. For years, pro-Russian armed militias operated in the Donbas regions, challenging government orders in Kyiv. With the arrival of Russian troops, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has invited all foreign fighters who are volunteering to support their forces in the country. It attempts to reflect the “International Brigades” in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s, which consisted of foreign volunteers from about 50 countries against the forces of Spanish military ruler Francisco Franco.

However, the role of foreign fighters has taken on a more sinister connotation after 2001 and al Qaeda, when Western recruits joined Islamic State to fight Syrian President Assad’s forces. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s recent statement that she would “absolutely support” British veterans and volunteers involved in the Ukraine war against Russia has since been reversed by the British Foreign Office, and it is hoped that India will include Other countries around the world stand firm. Efforts to prevent such “non-state actors” from engaging in foreign wars.

economic activities

Economic sanctions by the US, UK and European Union (EU) also point to the fragmentation of the global financial system. While analysts have pointed out that the sanctions announced so far do not include some of Russia’s biggest banks such as Sberbank and Gazprombank and energy agencies (to avoid the disruption of oil and gas from Russia), not intended to exclude Russia from all Is. The monetary and financial system remains the same. From expelling Russia from Swift Payments to canceling MasterCard, Visa, American Express and PayPal, sanctioning specific Russian businesses and oligarchs, and pressuring Western businesses (McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, etc.). To lock down Russia, the arbitrary and unilateral nature of Western sanctions rubs against the international financial system established under the World Trade Organization (which replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT).

The obvious result of this “economic cancellation culture” will, of course, be a backlash – a pushback from Russia and the search for alternative trading arrangements with countries such as China, India and the Eastern Hemisphere that continue to trade with Moscow. For example, for the S-400 missile defense deal, New Delhi used a rupee-ruble mechanism and banks that were immune to US CAATSA sanctions (or Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) for advance payments. Russian banks will now use Chinese “UnionPay” for online transactions. Gradually, the world could see a “non-dollar” system emerge that would run the banking, fintech and credit systems separate from the “dollar world”.

segregation by culture

Finally, there is the Western objective of “isolating” Russia socially and culturally, which goes against the global liberal order. While several governments, including the US, UK and Germany, have consistently stated that their fight is not with Russian citizens but with their leadership, it is clear that most of their actions will harm the average Russian citizen. The ban on all Russian-owned, Russian-controlled or Russian-registered aircraft from EU airspace, and the cancellation of Aeroflot’s international routes, will ensure that travel to and from Russia is severely curtailed . Some of this alienation of its citizens would work in favor of an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin. Mr. Putin’s response to the ban on Russian channels in Europe and his allies has been to use the Western media ban as an excuse to ban even Russian channels that are friendly to the opposition. The “separation” extends to art and music: over the past two weeks the Munich Philharmonic fired its chief conductor and New York’s Metropolitan Opera let go of a Russian soprano, Anna Netrebko, because they would not criticize the war. Bolshoi Ballet performances in London and Madrid were similarly cancelled.

The dangers of this widespread boycott of Russia are not without historical precedent. Speaking in his parliament this week, Mr Zelensky called on British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s “Fight to the End” speech given in the House of Commons in June 1940 to speak about Ukraine’s commitment to fighting Russia . European audiences would also like to remember Churchill’s other famous speech, “The Sinuses of Peace”, which was delivered in the United States in 1946, when he first discussed the relationship between Soviet Russia and Western Europe “under the iron curtain”. to come” was mentioned. Churchill warned, “The security of the world requires a new unity in Europe, so that no nation is permanently excommunicated.” However, his words went in vain and the world had to face the consequences of the Cold War for the next four decades.

New Delhi needs to think

Events in the past two weeks leading up to Russia’s declaration of war against Ukraine have undoubtedly overturned many of the ideas of 1945 and 1990, shattering the international order established with the United Nations, ushering in an era . Another Iron Curtain. India’s moderate reactions and its willingness not to criticize any action taken by the big powers could keep Indians safe in the short term. But in the long term, it is only those nations that actively move to maintain, strengthen and reinforce the global order that will make the world a safer place, even if this war promises few winners.

suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in