Foreign policy is a strange area where even the best laid plans of nations have to be molded and reshaped, built and dismantled based on the plans of other actors. As much as nations would like to think they have everything planned, their friends and adversaries often surprise and challenge their long-held assumptions. As a result, the end of much foreign policy is not what nations plan for themselves, but what others do to them. Policy-makers may feel they are in the driving seat, but it is often the case that external factors shape the path of nations. Structural realities transcend personal prejudices and ideological preferences.
India’s strategic community is passionate about Russia, and with good reason. When the West shunned and ostracized India, the Soviet Union stood by India through difficult times, providing strategic cover for New Delhi’s foreign policy aspirations. Bilateral relations between the two countries have stood the test of time. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Indian leaders have tried to maintain strong ties with Russia since the end of the Cold War, contrary to expectations that the Cold War romance might be rekindled. From Narasimha Rao to Narendra Modi, everyone has invested in the relationship to ensure that the two countries can continue to work on areas of mutual interest.
Yet, despite New Delhi’s best efforts, relations are on a downward spiral. And it’s mainly because of the choices that Russia is making. Russia’s inability to emerge from its economic crisis, Tsarist ambitions on its periphery, proximity to China, and most recently its aggression towards Ukraine, are all exposing Russian strategic weaknesses and calling for a stronger Russia-India partnership. Chances are getting smaller. , Many in the Indian strategic community talk about Russia’s strategic importance to India, but despite all the efforts being made by Indian policy makers, the relationship is not moving forward.
On the other hand, the Indo-US relationship presents a surprising contrast. Indian policy makers often talk about standing up to the US. It is a barometer of India’s strategic autonomy. Resisting American pressure, whether real or imagined, is a mark of honor. Despite growing rapprochement with Washington since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Indian leadership has been wary of being seen as a close ally with the US. In support of the civil nuclear deal, Manmohan Singh’s party had to threaten to resign as prime minister to rally behind him.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared in 2016 that the “hesitations of history” were over when it came to Indo-US relations, and that he had indeed managed to forge a strong partnership with Washington. But even with this remarkable convergence, a formal US alliance is out of the question. There is no political support for this in India.
However, structural changes have their own ways of manifesting. Even though many in India would have preferred a more relaxed engagement with the US, the changing global and regional power balance has created a strategic reality that New Delhi has not been able to ignore. The rise of China and its aggressiveness have made a strong India-US partnership a real necessity. The re-emergence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and its continued momentum is a testament to the strategic imperative for regional players in the Indo-Pacific to create mechanisms and tools to manage power shifts in the region.
It is in this context that one must see the debate on India’s involvement with NATO. Recently, the co-chairs of the US Senate’s India Caucus, Mark Warner and John Cornyn, announced that they would introduce legislation to grant India ‘NATO plus five’ defense status. This comes after the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) recommended that India’s inclusion in NATO Plus would strengthen global security and deter Chinese aggression.
This saw a sharp reaction from New Delhi, which declared that “the NATO template does not apply to India.”
It is certainly true that at this point in time any discussion on any sort of Indian involvement with NATO would be a non-starter. According to popular theology, New Delhi does not enter into military alliances. And probably India will never enter it. But just as the US is recognizing the need to work with a partner like India that does not fit into the framework of a traditional treaty partner that Washington is used to dealing with, India must recognize that in international relations, structural realities Overwhelms everything else. , If China continues with its assertive and aggressive foreign policy agenda towards India, New Delhi’s options will have to evolve accordingly. Ideological rigidity has not helped India well in the past and is unlikely to help India in the future.
Modi’s visit to the US last week was an acknowledgment that the Indian strategic community’s desire to distance itself from Washington, foreign policy pulls and pressures, has made the India-US partnership paramount to India. And if this trend continues, many other shibboleths of the past will bite the dust. India’s ‘no’ to NATO can also be one of them.
Harsh V. Pant is Professor of International Relations at King’s College London and Vice President of Studies at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
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Updated: June 29, 2023, 11:22 PM IST