Berlin: German Chancellor Olaf scholz flying to Ukraine And Russia Western intelligence officials have warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly imminent and Germany has called on its citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.
Ahead of his first visit to Moscow on Monday as chancellor of Kiev and on Tuesday for meetings with Ukraine and Russian presidents, Scholz has voiced his warnings for Russia as well as advocating for continued diplomacy across multiple formats.
“It is our job to ensure that we prevent war in Europe, in which we send a clear message to Russia that the consequences of any military offensive will be enormous for Russia and its prospects, and that we stand united with our allies in Scholz.” told the upper house of the German parliament on Friday.
“But at the same time it also includes using all opportunities for dialogue and further development,” Scholz said.
Russia has concentrated more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border and launched a series of military maneuvers in the region, but says it has no plans to invade the nation.
Moscow wants guarantees from the West that NATO will not allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members, and for the coalition to halt the deployment of weapons to Ukraine and withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe. The US and NATO rejected these demands outright.
Scholz has repeatedly stated that Moscow will have to pay a “high price” in the event of an attack, but his government has refused to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine or specify what sanctions against Russia. will be supported, has been criticized abroad and at home and has raised questions about Berlin’s resolve to stand up to Russia.
Germany’s reluctant position is partly rooted in its history of invasion during the 20th century when the country’s own militarization in Europe during the two world wars prompted many German leaders to view any military response as a last resort. Did.
Despite this historic burden, experts say it is now extremely important that Scholz emphasize that Germany is adjusting to its European and American allies, especially when he meets with the Russian president. Vladimir Putin,
“Scholz has a very clear message to deliver in Moscow, and it can really only happen: there is unity and unity in the Western Alliance. There is no possibility of driving a nail into the Western Alliance, and it must be understood in Moscow. Me. I think they have to deliver the most important message there,” Marcus said. zinerAn expert from the German Marshall Fund.
“At the same time, he has to make it clear that the cost is high,” Ziner said. “That’s basically the message that’s most likely to catch on in Moscow as well. So a military invasion of Ukraine has significant consequences for Russia.”
Scholz did not say explicitly what consequences or sanctions Russia would face if it invades Ukraine, but it is clear that the future of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline that transports Russian natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. Ukraine is at stake, bypassing it.
US President Joe Biden last week threatened to block the pipeline in the event of an invasion.
This would hurt Russia economically but would also create a supply problem for Germany. The construction of the pipeline has been completed, but it is not yet operational.
“Germany doesn’t have much leverage other than saying it will not approve Nord Stream 2, which is the only political leverage,” Claudia Kemfert, head of the Department of Energy, Transport and Environment at the German Institute for Economic Research, said. , said.
“Otherwise, Germany is susceptible to blackmail. There is not much we can do. We have committed ourselves to getting gas supplies, unlike other European countries we have not diversified our gas supply and we have made an energy transition. But we’ve dragged our feet. So we did a lot of things wrong, and now we’re paying the price,” Kemfurt said.
It should come as no surprise, then, that Scholz has stressed the need to keep some ambiguity about sanctions to put pressure on Russia and has so far avoided mentioning Nord Stream 2 specifically.
“Olaf Scholz’s hesitation clearly leads to the fact that no one really knows what the Germans really want,” Ziner said. “With respect to Nord Stream 2, I think there should have been a clearer statement that when it comes to military intervention, Nord Stream 2 is off the table.”
Asked on Friday whether Scholz would take any new initiatives for Kiev and Moscow or in positions that are already on the table, his spokesman, Stephen Hebstreitreplied that he would “continue to the conditions that we have already determined.”
Scholz can only hope that in his talks with Putin he can prevent him from taking military action with a face-saving solution, Ziener says.
“He can really only hope that at the end of this whole round of negotiations there will be a breakthrough, that the war can be stopped. Then Scholz will be praised for his negotiating skills,” Ziner said. “If not, the question will be asked: what exactly was the German government line?”
Ahead of his first visit to Moscow on Monday as chancellor of Kiev and on Tuesday for meetings with Ukraine and Russian presidents, Scholz has voiced his warnings for Russia as well as advocating for continued diplomacy across multiple formats.
“It is our job to ensure that we prevent war in Europe, in which we send a clear message to Russia that the consequences of any military offensive will be enormous for Russia and its prospects, and that we stand united with our allies in Scholz.” told the upper house of the German parliament on Friday.
“But at the same time it also includes using all opportunities for dialogue and further development,” Scholz said.
Russia has concentrated more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border and launched a series of military maneuvers in the region, but says it has no plans to invade the nation.
Moscow wants guarantees from the West that NATO will not allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members, and for the coalition to halt the deployment of weapons to Ukraine and withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe. The US and NATO rejected these demands outright.
Scholz has repeatedly stated that Moscow will have to pay a “high price” in the event of an attack, but his government has refused to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine or specify what sanctions against Russia. will be supported, has been criticized abroad and at home and has raised questions about Berlin’s resolve to stand up to Russia.
Germany’s reluctant position is partly rooted in its history of invasion during the 20th century when the country’s own militarization in Europe during the two world wars prompted many German leaders to view any military response as a last resort. Did.
Despite this historic burden, experts say it is now extremely important that Scholz emphasize that Germany is adjusting to its European and American allies, especially when he meets with the Russian president. Vladimir Putin,
“Scholz has a very clear message to deliver in Moscow, and it can really only happen: there is unity and unity in the Western Alliance. There is no possibility of driving a nail into the Western Alliance, and it must be understood in Moscow. Me. I think they have to deliver the most important message there,” Marcus said. zinerAn expert from the German Marshall Fund.
“At the same time, he has to make it clear that the cost is high,” Ziner said. “That’s basically the message that’s most likely to catch on in Moscow as well. So a military invasion of Ukraine has significant consequences for Russia.”
Scholz did not say explicitly what consequences or sanctions Russia would face if it invades Ukraine, but it is clear that the future of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline that transports Russian natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. Ukraine is at stake, bypassing it.
US President Joe Biden last week threatened to block the pipeline in the event of an invasion.
This would hurt Russia economically but would also create a supply problem for Germany. The construction of the pipeline has been completed, but it is not yet operational.
“Germany doesn’t have much leverage other than saying it will not approve Nord Stream 2, which is the only political leverage,” Claudia Kemfert, head of the Department of Energy, Transport and Environment at the German Institute for Economic Research, said. , said.
“Otherwise, Germany is susceptible to blackmail. There is not much we can do. We have committed ourselves to getting gas supplies, unlike other European countries we have not diversified our gas supply and we have made an energy transition. But we’ve dragged our feet. So we did a lot of things wrong, and now we’re paying the price,” Kemfurt said.
It should come as no surprise, then, that Scholz has stressed the need to keep some ambiguity about sanctions to put pressure on Russia and has so far avoided mentioning Nord Stream 2 specifically.
“Olaf Scholz’s hesitation clearly leads to the fact that no one really knows what the Germans really want,” Ziner said. “With respect to Nord Stream 2, I think there should have been a clearer statement that when it comes to military intervention, Nord Stream 2 is off the table.”
Asked on Friday whether Scholz would take any new initiatives for Kiev and Moscow or in positions that are already on the table, his spokesman, Stephen Hebstreitreplied that he would “continue to the conditions that we have already determined.”
Scholz can only hope that in his talks with Putin he can prevent him from taking military action with a face-saving solution, Ziener says.
“He can really only hope that at the end of this whole round of negotiations there will be a breakthrough, that the war can be stopped. Then Scholz will be praised for his negotiating skills,” Ziner said. “If not, the question will be asked: what exactly was the German government line?”
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