Glasgow Summit on Climate Change: What has it achieved?

New global and country targets: COP-26 had to deal with the troubling prospect that the world was set to reach nearly +3 °C by the end of the century, which is “below 2 °C” by the 2015 Paris Agreement target. was far above. and ideally 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Scientific evidence was mounting that even 2 °C would have dangerous effects on the tropics and lowlands. The Glasgow Climate Treaty has set a target of global warming to no more than +1.5 °C and also got around 140 countries to announce target dates to bring emissions below zero. This is a significant achievement, given that in Paris in 2015, while all developing countries agreed to take steps to limit carbon emissions, they did not agree to reduce emissions, but only to “emissions- To reduce the intensity”.

Glasgow has brought both developed and developing countries on board, offering to reduce emissions to near zero. Most have adopted 2050 as their net-zero date, with some aiming for 2045 or earlier, while others such as China, Russia and Indonesia have indicated 2060. India has joined the consensus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared net-zero. 2070 target. It was a departure from our previous position where we never acknowledged the need to reduce emissions, and the new stand has been widely appreciated.

New goals come with two important qualifications. First, they are voluntary with no mechanism for enforcement or penalties for non-compliance, and many are also conditional on the availability of adequate financial support. Second, many countries have yet to provide details about the specific actions to be taken that will determine the true trajectory of true zero. Since it is the shape of the trajectory that determines the total emissions for each country, it introduces some uncertainty about what will be achieved.

A preliminary assessment by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) suggests that the declared targets, if fully achieved, could limit global warming to around +1.8 °C. However, it also warns that the 2030 targets are insufficiently ambitious. Unless tightened significantly, we are more likely to see an increase in global temperatures by 2.1-2.4°C.

The Glasgow Pact therefore urges countries to consider strengthening their 2030 targets by the CoP-27 to be held in Egypt in 2022. We find that it is the major emitters that will have to bear the bulk of the tightening burden. China only intends to hit peak emissions by 2030 before going below zero in 2060. This means that it would account for 54% of the global carbon budget (i.e. the total carbon space available to the world if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C), while its population share is only 18.7%. The US, with 4.2% of the world’s people, will take 14.2% of that budget. Europe, with 6.8%, will lead up to 9.5%. Overall, these countries, which account for about 30% of the world’s population, will account for 78% of the carbon budget. This problem reflects the fact that a focus on net-zero dates does not ensure a fair division of the available carbon space if the initial conditions in terms of emissions vary so much.

Climate justice requires a recalculation which can be indicated by the dashed lines in the chart above. China, instead of increasing emissions by 2030, as currently announced, may need to keep them at their current levels for a few years and then drop to near zero by 2050. The US should achieve a sharp reduction in emissions by 2030, and extend its net-zero date to 2040. The whole of Europe should follow the German/Swedish example and aim for a net-zero by 2045. With this recalculation, this group’s carbon emissions would drop to 32% of the carbon budget, pretty close to their population share. India’s 2070 target will take 18.1% of its carbon space, which is slightly more than our population share of 17.7%. We should be prepared to consider revising our trajectory as part of an agreed global package, with other countries taking appropriate action.

Phase out Coal: Coal is the dirtiest of the fossil fuels and it is clearly desirable to phase out coal at the earliest. European countries, which have graduated from coal (though remaining heavily dependent on oil and gas), worked hard to phase it out. Developing countries, which are heavily dependent on coal, protested. The Glasgow text addresses the problem through an agreement suggested by India, and refers only to the “phase-down” of coal-fired electricity.

India has not made any promises on this issue for good reason. Our near-term goal is to increase India’s non-fossil-fuel-based power capacity from 155GW currently to 500GW by 2030, depending on expansion from 100GW to 450GW in nearly all solar and wind generation. If these targets are achieved, the share of coal-fired electricity is projected to fall from 72% currently to a little over 50% in 2030. However, since our total electricity demand is likely to double over this period, the level of full coal-fired production will still be 30% higher than it is today. It rules out a phase-out of coal-fired electricity this decade.

However, in the long run, our goal of net zero will require a phased-out of coal-based power over the next decade. We should start working on a detailed plan for this transition. We may consider declaring that no new coal based plants will be built currently under construction or after the completion of the plan. We may also consider a policy of accelerated retirement of old, inefficient and polluting plants, provided suitable financing is secured.

Electric vehicles: Reaching net-zero by 2070 requires phasing out petrol and diesel in transportation and moving to EVs, using electricity from renewables or hydrogen when it’s possible. Currently, the share of electric vehicles in vehicle sales in India is less than 2%. There is talk of 30% of new passenger cars and 70% of new commercial vehicles going electric by 2030. It will need to be increased further. The target share of EVs in total sales should work backwards from the date when we want the entire fleet of the country to become emission free. If this is to be achieved by 2050, we should consider declaring that the sale of petrol/diesel/gas vehicles will not be allowed after 2035. This will give the automotive sector about 15 years to restructure its production. It will also give the old polluting fleet time to retire before 2050.

India’s ambitious goals on expanding renewable capacity require policy action, aimed at stabilizing intermittent supply from renewable energy, building transmission infrastructure, creating an efficient electricity market and fixing the financial fragility of our discoms. Is. These actions are not specified in the nationally determined contribution to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but will need to be included in our domestic policy agenda for years to come.

A potentially important development outside the CoP-26 but outside the CoP process is the Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda, which has been supported by 42 countries, including India. It is a cooperative effort to accelerate the development and deployment of clean technologies and sustainable solutions in sectors such as clean energy, road transport, steel and hydrogen. It’s hard to predict how effective such a collaboration would be, but something along these lines is certainly needed so that we can keep track of what works elsewhere in the world.

Montek S. Ahluwalia and Utkarsh Patel are, respectively, former Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission and currently Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP); and Associate Fellow at CSEP, Sustainability and Climate Change.