Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Perhaps nowhere is the global energy transition more surprising than this Arabian Peninsula, where Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies are caught between two challenging climate change scenarios that threaten their livelihoods.
In one, the world stops burning oil and gas to cut heat-trapping emissions, shaking the foundations of their economies. In another, global temperatures continue to rise, threatening an already extremely hot area of the Gulf to become unlivable.
The political stability of the six Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – lies in the profits from fossil fuels. This includes exports that energy-hungry China and India want even more in the next two decades.
“Climate action, it is almost an existential problem for an absolute monarchy based on oil exports,” said Jim Crane, author of “ Energy Kingdoms: Oil and Political Survival in the Persian Gulf.
“They need climate action to be successful without ruining the oil market. It’s a tough needle.”
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain this month pledged “net-zero” emissions targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining exports of fossil fuels abroad.
Saudi Arabia, which supplies about a tenth of the world’s oil demand, made the announcement this week while hosting its first major climate change forum. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Set 2060 as Saudi Arabia’s target.
This was a significant announcement for a country with an estimated 265 billion barrels of oil reserves worth $22.5 trillion at current prices. Saudi Arabia has expressed its determination to pump oil to the last drop, but has found little use for its largest natural resource in a world that runs on renewable and clean forms of solar energy.
Gulf monarchies have used oil revenues to maintain domestic support, buy up regional clout and expand influence. The money has built national armies and provided citizens with cushioned public sector jobs, free health care and higher education, subsidized fuel, land to build houses, marriage dowries and generous pensions.
Without this protection system, the Gulf monarchy may have to allow more political participation or become more oppressive, said Crane, an energy studies fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas.
gulf arab states By pledging ‘net zero’ emissions, they are positioning themselves to be part of the multi-trillion-dollar clean energy industry, even as they continue to earn from oil and gas.
At the Saudi Green Initiative Forum in Riyadh, President Joe Biden’s climate envoy, john kerry, told a suite of princes and prime ministers from across the region that climate action “could create the world’s biggest market opportunity ever”.
“This is the biggest change ever on this planet, since the Industrial Revolution, if we do this,” Kerry said.
The “Net Zero” pledges also enable the Gulf’s ruling elite to exert influence at conventions such as COP26, where climate action policies are being drafted, said Ellen Wald, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of “Saudi Inc.” .
“It’s important for them to have a seat at the table and be taken seriously at these conferences … because that’s how they get a point,” she said.
Saudi Arabia is one of several countries lobbying to change the language around emissions behind the scenes ahead of the COP26 summit, apparently according to leaked documents, an upcoming UN science panel report on global warming. trying to reduce.
Gulf Arab states are privately and publicly advocating for carbon capture technologies rather than a rapid phasing out from fossil fuels, warning that a hasty transition would leave poor populations without access to energy.
Greenpeace, which received the leaked documents, criticized the approach, saying that these “as yet unproven” carbon capture technologies allow nations on the optimistic assumption to emit more greenhouse gases that can then be taken out of the atmosphere. can.
Meanwhile, national energy companies such as Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC and Qatar Petroleum – now re-branded as Qatar Energy – have been involved in reducing emissions and increasing petrochemical products used in fertilizers, plastics, rubber and other polymers. Efforts are on to promote investment. In huge demand globally.
The world’s largest oil company by far, Aramco, announced it would reach “net zero” on its operations by 2050, a decade ahead of the Saudi government’s pledge. ADNOC has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2030.
Qatar Petroleum has already shipped a carbon-neutral cargo of LNG gas to Singapore and will include carbon capture technology in its expansion plans, according to a report by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Speaking at the forum in Riyadh, ADNOC CEO Sultan Al-Jaber called on people to be ‘a bit mature and calm’ in discussing the energy transition, stressing that it will take time and include oil and gas. needed.
Al-Jaber said, “We cannot come out of nowhere and speak about the sudden energy transition and by completely ignoring or minimizing the impact of oil and gas in helping to meet global energy needs.” can be judged.” Energy requirements currently come from fossil fuels, with oil and gas accounting for 60%.
OPEC predicts that the push for alternative and renewable energy will usher in an era of declining demand for oil in some parts of the world, making it the world’s No. 1 source of energy until 2045. It estimates that only 20% of the 2.6 billion cars on the road will be electric by 2045.
Although all six Gulf states rely heavily on fossil fuels for state spending, each has taken steps to diversify their economies, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE making aggressive efforts to attract investment in new industries.
Still, more than half of Saudi Arabia’s revenue comes from oil, with $150 billion expected this year alone as prices climb to $85 a barrel.
“Oil exports are the lifeblood of the Saudi economy and the Saudi political system,” Crane said. “It would be a disaster for Saudi Arabia if the rest of the world quickly weaned itself from oil.”
Scientists say the world should invest in renewable energy to limit warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), though a new United Nations report finds governments’ new promises aren’t so strict. so that the rise in temperature can be kept down till the end. century.
Almost all of the warming on Earth can be blamed on emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide and methane, and if the limit is exceeded, scientists say the damage will be irreversible.
Speaking to reporters this month, Qatar Energy Minister saad al-kabiq Questioned whether countries that have “net-zero” pledges have any plans on how to get there.
“For me to just come out and say, ‘Net Zero 2050’. So sexy,” he said. ‘I mean, the newspaper looks great, but it’s not the right thing.’
In one, the world stops burning oil and gas to cut heat-trapping emissions, shaking the foundations of their economies. In another, global temperatures continue to rise, threatening an already extremely hot area of the Gulf to become unlivable.
The political stability of the six Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – lies in the profits from fossil fuels. This includes exports that energy-hungry China and India want even more in the next two decades.
“Climate action, it is almost an existential problem for an absolute monarchy based on oil exports,” said Jim Crane, author of “ Energy Kingdoms: Oil and Political Survival in the Persian Gulf.
“They need climate action to be successful without ruining the oil market. It’s a tough needle.”
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain this month pledged “net-zero” emissions targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining exports of fossil fuels abroad.
Saudi Arabia, which supplies about a tenth of the world’s oil demand, made the announcement this week while hosting its first major climate change forum. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Set 2060 as Saudi Arabia’s target.
This was a significant announcement for a country with an estimated 265 billion barrels of oil reserves worth $22.5 trillion at current prices. Saudi Arabia has expressed its determination to pump oil to the last drop, but has found little use for its largest natural resource in a world that runs on renewable and clean forms of solar energy.
Gulf monarchies have used oil revenues to maintain domestic support, buy up regional clout and expand influence. The money has built national armies and provided citizens with cushioned public sector jobs, free health care and higher education, subsidized fuel, land to build houses, marriage dowries and generous pensions.
Without this protection system, the Gulf monarchy may have to allow more political participation or become more oppressive, said Crane, an energy studies fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas.
gulf arab states By pledging ‘net zero’ emissions, they are positioning themselves to be part of the multi-trillion-dollar clean energy industry, even as they continue to earn from oil and gas.
At the Saudi Green Initiative Forum in Riyadh, President Joe Biden’s climate envoy, john kerry, told a suite of princes and prime ministers from across the region that climate action “could create the world’s biggest market opportunity ever”.
“This is the biggest change ever on this planet, since the Industrial Revolution, if we do this,” Kerry said.
The “Net Zero” pledges also enable the Gulf’s ruling elite to exert influence at conventions such as COP26, where climate action policies are being drafted, said Ellen Wald, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of “Saudi Inc.” .
“It’s important for them to have a seat at the table and be taken seriously at these conferences … because that’s how they get a point,” she said.
Saudi Arabia is one of several countries lobbying to change the language around emissions behind the scenes ahead of the COP26 summit, apparently according to leaked documents, an upcoming UN science panel report on global warming. trying to reduce.
Gulf Arab states are privately and publicly advocating for carbon capture technologies rather than a rapid phasing out from fossil fuels, warning that a hasty transition would leave poor populations without access to energy.
Greenpeace, which received the leaked documents, criticized the approach, saying that these “as yet unproven” carbon capture technologies allow nations on the optimistic assumption to emit more greenhouse gases that can then be taken out of the atmosphere. can.
Meanwhile, national energy companies such as Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC and Qatar Petroleum – now re-branded as Qatar Energy – have been involved in reducing emissions and increasing petrochemical products used in fertilizers, plastics, rubber and other polymers. Efforts are on to promote investment. In huge demand globally.
The world’s largest oil company by far, Aramco, announced it would reach “net zero” on its operations by 2050, a decade ahead of the Saudi government’s pledge. ADNOC has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2030.
Qatar Petroleum has already shipped a carbon-neutral cargo of LNG gas to Singapore and will include carbon capture technology in its expansion plans, according to a report by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Speaking at the forum in Riyadh, ADNOC CEO Sultan Al-Jaber called on people to be ‘a bit mature and calm’ in discussing the energy transition, stressing that it will take time and include oil and gas. needed.
Al-Jaber said, “We cannot come out of nowhere and speak about the sudden energy transition and by completely ignoring or minimizing the impact of oil and gas in helping to meet global energy needs.” can be judged.” Energy requirements currently come from fossil fuels, with oil and gas accounting for 60%.
OPEC predicts that the push for alternative and renewable energy will usher in an era of declining demand for oil in some parts of the world, making it the world’s No. 1 source of energy until 2045. It estimates that only 20% of the 2.6 billion cars on the road will be electric by 2045.
Although all six Gulf states rely heavily on fossil fuels for state spending, each has taken steps to diversify their economies, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE making aggressive efforts to attract investment in new industries.
Still, more than half of Saudi Arabia’s revenue comes from oil, with $150 billion expected this year alone as prices climb to $85 a barrel.
“Oil exports are the lifeblood of the Saudi economy and the Saudi political system,” Crane said. “It would be a disaster for Saudi Arabia if the rest of the world quickly weaned itself from oil.”
Scientists say the world should invest in renewable energy to limit warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), though a new United Nations report finds governments’ new promises aren’t so strict. so that the rise in temperature can be kept down till the end. century.
Almost all of the warming on Earth can be blamed on emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide and methane, and if the limit is exceeded, scientists say the damage will be irreversible.
Speaking to reporters this month, Qatar Energy Minister saad al-kabiq Questioned whether countries that have “net-zero” pledges have any plans on how to get there.
“For me to just come out and say, ‘Net Zero 2050’. So sexy,” he said. ‘I mean, the newspaper looks great, but it’s not the right thing.’
.