Haryana Election Results: Decoding 5 key factors that worked for BJP, Modi | Mint

The Bharatiya Janata Party scripted history by securing hat-trick of wins in Haryana assembly elections, the results of which were declared on Tuesday.

Defying exit polls and beating anti-incumbency of ten years, the saffron party won 48 seats, two more than the majority mark in the 90-member house. The party even managed to increase its vote share after two terms in office.

“For the first time, a government has been formed in Haryana after completing two terms of 5 years each,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said addressing party workers at BJP headquarter in Delhi late Tuesday. 

The Congress party buoyed by its performance in the Lok Sabha elections in which it won five out of the 10 seats compared to the BJP’s five was confident of wresting the state from the BJP. In the end, however, the Congress party won 37 seats, though its vote share also increased.

So what explains the BJP’s unexpected victory in Haryana where all exit polls had predicted a smooth victory for the Congress?

The Vote Share Jump

The BJP’s got about 40 per cent vote share in Haryana, according to Election Commission of India. This vote share was 36.5 per cent in 2019. An increase in vote share, despite being in power for ten years, is indeed significant.

The Congress party has also registered a vote jump from 28 per cent to 39 per cent. But the increase has perhaps come from parties like JJP, INLD, BSP, who were decimated. The Congress failed to win in most of the ruling party’s strongholds like GT Road belt which stretch from Ambala to Delhi. Faridabad and Gurgaon.

The Jat Vs Non-Jat

The BJP has been working on consolidation of non-Jat votes from Punjabis, OBCs, Brahmins, Rajputs, to name a few, since 2014 when it wrested Haryana from the Congress by winning 47 seats.

The party appointed Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi Khatri, as chief minister in 2014. Then the saffron party picked Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC, as state party chief and later to replace Khattar’s successor in March. The move was aimed at securing the OBC vote constituting about 40 per cent of the population spread over 78 castes in Haryana.

Before 2014, the Haryana CM has been from upper-caste Jat community which is 25 per cent of the state’s population. But the BJP smartly consolidated the 75 per cent non-Jat voters by it’s candidate choices and policies, perhaps to counter Congress’s CM face Bhupinder Singh Hooda – a prominent Jat face.

Overconfidence

The Congress party was perhaps riding high on its Lok Sabha election 2024 performance where it won 5 of the 10 seats in Haryana. Taking into consideration the possible anti-incumbency against the BJP after a ten-year rule, the Congress, analysts said, expected a smooth win, more so with with the weakening influence of regional parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP).

The overconfidence was reflected in ticket distribution too, which led to rebellions and affected the Congress party’s chances in some key seats.

A Divided Congress

The Congress party was marred by infighting throughout its campaign and it lacked the unity that it showed in Lok Sabha elections. There was a clear rift between top leaders Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja. Selja stayed out of campaign for quite some time before she was placated by Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge.

Political analysts said that the party should have taken a leaf out of Karnataka where its top leaders Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar put out a united front during the 2023 assembly election campaign despite differences and eventually won.

The Congress party had also pinned hope on the support from Dalit votes, comprising 20 per cent of Haryana’s electorate. It didn’t work, however.

Two Dalit-centric coalitions— the INLD-BSP and the JJP-Chandrasekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram)— clearly split the anti-BJP votes among Dalits. Many feel that the sidelining of Dalit leader Kumari Selja by the Congress also caused some level of discontent.