Highlight
- GDP growth expected to grow in double digits at 13 per cent in Q1FY23
- This is due to low base in contact-intensive areas after extensive immunization coverage: ICRA
- Gross Value Added at Basic Price is expected to be 3.9 per cent to 12.6 per cent in the first quarter of FY 2013
business NewsAccording to an ICRA report, GDP growth is expected to grow in double digits to 13 per cent in Q1FY23 due to a low base and strong recovery in contact-intensive areas following widespread immunization coverage.
Gross Value Added (GVA) at base price is expected to be 12.6 per cent in the first quarter of FY23 as against 3.9 per cent earlier.
ICRA expects sectoral growth in Q1 FY2023 to be driven by the services sector (+17-19 per cent; +5.5 per cent in Q4 FY2022), followed by industry (+9-11 per cent; +1.3 per cent).
However, GVA growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing is projected to decline from 1.0 per cent in Q1 FY2023 to 4.1 per cent in Q4 FY2022, due to the adverse impact of heat wave in many parts of the country, which suppressed wheat. Output
“Projected double-digit GDP expansion in Q1 FY2023 benefits from a low base of the second wave of Covid-19 in India in Q1 FY2022 as well as a strong recovery in contact-intensive sectors following widespread vaccination coverage. In the ICRA assessment, There has been a shift in demand for contact-intensive services from discretionary consumer goods for middle- to high-income groups due to a combination of an emerging caution in export demand and the impact of higher commodity prices on volumes as well as margins for the industrial sector. “Relatively moderate industrial growth is expected,” Aditi Nair, Chief Economist, ICRA, said in a release.
Travel-related services have improved since the start of FY2023, benefiting from an increase in corporate travel-related demand and increased confidence to avail leisure services amid declining trajectory of COVID-19 infections. Further, within transport, railways and road sub-sectors are expected to post a healthy recovery in Q1 FY2023, as indicated by healthy year-on-year growth in rail freight and GST e-way bills.
Overall, ICRA expects growth in GVA of Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Broadcasting Related Services (THTCS) to record a base-impact driven expansion of 40-45 per cent in Q1 FY2023 (+5.3 per cent in Q4 FY2022). Will do , trailing the Q1 FY2020 pre-Covid level of 2.5 per cent muted.
(with IANS inputs)
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