New Delhi’s diplomatic meeting has intensified. India was one of the few countries – and the only democracy – in the UN Security Council to abstain from a US-sponsored resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now there is tremendous pressure on him to change his stance.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, held a virtual summit with his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison, and held a personal meeting with Japan’s leader Fumio Kishida. Others passing through the capital include the foreign ministers of Austria, Greece, Mexico and Oman, and Victoria Nuland, the US Under Secretary for Political Affairs. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited on 25 March, conducting a serious investigation into the poor relations between the two countries, while Britain’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was also in town.
The scheduled arrival of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in New Delhi this week brings with it a strange dilemma. Already accusing Ukraine of being “on the wrong side of history”, New Delhi will be asked whether to prepare a welcome mat for Lavrov during the conflict that has leveled the Ukrainian city of Mariupol and Thousands of civilians have been killed and injured, as its sixth week grinds to a halt.
External Affairs Minister of India S. Jaishankar’s meeting with Lavrov will undoubtedly be a shock to those who have seen weeks of bloodshed and Ukrainians fighting a brave, determined fight to save their country.
But here’s the thing: Sitting down with a strategic partner – even one regarded as an outcast on the global stage – is exactly what India’s top diplomat should do. Controversies don’t end until people start talking. Actually talking, that is, taking more territory or taking time to inflict more damage, is not a posture. That doesn’t mean there aren’t risks. Washington and its NATO allies will need to be reassured that Jaishankar is pushing for a ceasefire and a permanent peace deal, even as they debate among themselves whether talking to Russia is helpful.
Still, efforts to force India to change its stance at the United Nations and abandon its plan to continue buying Russian oil must be heavy. US President Joe Biden described India’s position on Russia as “somewhat unstable”. With the extreme criticism Russia has faced, it happens that India will find time to distance itself further.”
But India is constrained by its historical reliance on Russian weapons and its long diplomatic ties with Moscow and tensions along the Himalayan border with China after deadly skirmishes in the summer of 2020. Wang’s visit apparently did nothing to lower the temperature. Between New Delhi and Beijing.
Russia and China are trying to steer India in one direction: towards a more forceful statement in support of Moscow’s actions. Its allies are trying to encourage it in another: an outright condemnation, a vote with the West at the United Nations and some considerable distance from Moscow. However, for now, New Delhi is holding its nerves. Even its warm ties with the US, which has led to a strengthening of defense and security partnerships and an increasingly active role in the regional quad grouping, have not helped India.
It is worth noting that India is not the only country that has continued to buy Russian fuel. Europe continues to purchase significant amounts of liquefied natural gas and will do very well in the future, despite a recent US-EU agreement to boost shipments of LNG to help the continent reduce its dependence on Moscow.
This duplicity is not lost on India. In a parliamentary session on 25 March, a politician criticized India, describing the West’s “double game” of turning a blind eye to Europe’s imports. Jaishankar replied: “I share the honorable member’s comments on the matter.”
A former foreign secretary and former ambassador to China and the US, Nirupama Rao stepped forward. Noting that she was opposed to Moscow’s actions, Rao tweeted that she was “extremely disillusioned with the imagined religiosity of the Western response and the echoes of post-9/11 rhetoric about ‘Are you with us or not’? Our relationship with the West is important to us, but the pressure we consider unreasonable may not work.”
Let’s see how New Delhi weathers this diplomatic storm and whether an open line of communication with Moscow will really help end this conflict, before any more blood is shed.
Ruth Pollard is a columnist and editor with Bloomberg Opinion
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