TeaThey ‘out of power Modi brigade’, now under a new nameplate India or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, recently held its second meeting in Bengaluru after the first meeting in Patna. However, not much has changed since then. Dreamers of ‘Modi’Free ‘Parliament’ has sharpened its knives in targeting the BJP and especially its tallest leader Narendra Modi. But this motley crowd of 26 political parties should know that they are not even close to their goal. Some of these parties were part of the Congress-led UPA, which twice failed miserably to oust the BJP from power.
It is not difficult to predict the result. Neither the Congress nor other parties have a national leader of the stature and popularity that many BJP leaders have. Additionally, these parties are unlikely to be willing to accommodate each other or even the Congress when it comes to seat-sharing for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. At best, they would like to contest elections from their respective states and hope to garner votes from the Congress and other allies.
Barring the Congress, all other parties are highly apprehensive about the new avatar of the UPA, and rightly so, that they will lose their support base in their respective states if they move out of their zones of assured return. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is a classic example of a party trying to ride two horses at the same time. His pan-India ambition to be seen as a ‘Dalit icon’ has not won him votes or acceptance in other states; In fact, it wiped out his dedicated vote bank.workplace” Uttar Pradesh.
Two reasons are cited to support the argument that the combined might of anti-BJP parties could potentially oust the BJP from power in 2024. The first is the recent defeat in the Karnataka assembly elections and the second is the historic defeat of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004, when the Indian economy was doing well and the country’s global acceptance was high.
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where the new group goes wrong
The 2023 election in Karnataka was a different scenario where the BJP faced the Congress in a direct contest, and the current chief minister did not enjoy the same popularity as some of his predecessors. Besides this, the Congress was also successful in creating a perception among the public that the BJP government had failed to stop corruption. It also projected a chief ministerial face, although after the results the party faced difficulties in resolving infighting.
In the case of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, none of these Karnataka-specific factors apply at the national level. The competition is not going to be straight. Congress does not have any face for the post of Prime Minister. Actually, its chairman is Mallikarjun Kharge announced That the party is not interested in the post of PM. This is just a strategy of Congress to keep other parties in ‘Bharat’ till elections. As soon as she announces her intention to lead the new UPA, several partners leave the dais.
Calling the 2004 election results a success mantra Defeating the BJP in 2024 is again an illogical argument, as the 2004 contest was between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led UPA. While the BJP got 138 seats (22.2 percent of the vote), the Congress won 145 seats (26.5 percent of the vote), a narrow margin of seven seats. Two strong allies of the BJP, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh got zero and five seats, respectively; All other NDA partners collectively lost 113 seats. This was the factor that ousted the Vajpayee government from power. For the Congress and other 25 parties to reach the three-digit mark in 2024 is not only improbable, but impossible.
Therefore, the best bet for the Congress would be to abandon efforts to bring back its estranged UPA allies and form a coalition of odd allies. Many of these parties are family-owned and have been accused of corruption and embezzlement of public funds. The Congress will bear the burden of his works on its shoulders.
Furthermore, none of these parties have a nationwide presence; They are confined to one state with a limited vote bank. Congress is the only party which has an all India network, even though it is weak and weak. This is the reason why despite the party’s dynastic structure and failed leadership, the new UPA has retained its former chairman, who adds little value to the new group. The Congress should be prepared to go it alone in 2029 if it manages to survive till then. It should come as no surprise if some of its Indian partners manage to join the NDA after the 2024 Lok Sabha election results.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweeted @seshadrihari. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)