Q3 GDP data will be released tomorrow, February 28.
Various estimates expect India’s Q3 FY23 GDP to be in the range of 4.4 per cent-5.1 per cent, lower than the 6.3 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 FY23).
India’s latest GDP data for the third quarter of the current financial year 2022-23 (Q3 FY23) will be released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday, February 28. This will be closely watched as the numbers are the key economic indicator to measure the country’s development. Various estimates expect India’s Q3 FY23 GDP to be in the range of 4.4 per cent-5.1 per cent, lower than the 6.3 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 FY23).
Rating agency ICRA expects India’s GDP to grow by 5.1 per cent in Q3 FY23 India (SBI) sees a growth of 4.6 percent, Barclays India expects the Indian economy to grow by 5 percent, and the RBI sees the country’s GDP growth at 4.4 percent in the December 2022 quarter.
according to a reutersIn a survey of economists, India’s economic growth may slow further in the December 2022 quarter and is set to decelerate further amid a hike in interest rates, which has weighed on business activity.
India Ratings in its report also said, “While there are some positives for India such as – sustained government capex, deleveraged corporates, low NPAs in the banking sector, production linked stimulus plan and likely fall in global commodity prices, Ind -ra believes they are still not enough to take FY24 GDP growth beyond 6 per cent.
Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays India, expects the economy to contract at a rate of less than 5 per cent in the third quarter of fiscal 2023. “For FY24, we continue to expect a soft landing as tighter monetary conditions and still-high inflation take a toll. We continue to see growth slowing to 6 per cent and project a steady GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25,” he told PTI,
The State Bank of India, estimating a growth of 4.6 per cent in the third quarter, also said that 30 high-frequency indicators were not as strong as they were in previous quarters.
On Tuesday, apart from the GDP data for December 2022, the quarterly numbers for FY20, FY21, FY22 and FY23 (Q1 and Q2) will also be revised.
GDP growth in Q2FY23
In the first advance estimates of national income for FY23 in early January, the National Statistical Office projected that the Indian economy would grow at 7 per cent in 2022-23, compared to 8.7 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly due to poor performance because of. manufacturing sector. Manufacturing sector output is estimated to decline by 1.6 per cent as against a growth of 9.9 per cent in FY22.
In the previous quarter ending September 30, 2022 (Q2 FY23), India’s GDP grew by 6.3 per cent. The RBI had also projected a GDP growth of 6.3 per cent during July-September 2022.
During July-September 2022, the country’s gross value added (GVA), which is gross domestic product minus net excise taxes and reflects the increase in supply, grew by 5.6 per cent as against 8.3 per cent a year ago.
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