Iran’s nuclear progress depends on renewed talks

Restoring a deal banning Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for economic sanctions relief is a top foreign-policy goal of the Biden administration. Iran’s new president, however, has delayed the resumption of talks by advancing nuclear work.

President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018 and imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran. Tehran responded by gradually restarting its efforts to produce highly enriched uranium and uranium metal, both of which are important components for nuclear weapons.

In recent months, Iran has taken steps it has never taken before, including producing 60% enriched uranium, a small step up from weapons-grade nuclear fuel. Iran says its nuclear work is for nuclear power and other peaceful purposes.

European officials warned last week that Iran’s research work on centrifuges used to enrich uranium also meant that Iran’s growing knowledge could “irreversibly reduce its ability to disrupt its nuclear program”. while Russia’s top negotiator warned that “there was a clear” talks needed to be accelerated.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month that “we are approaching a point where returning to compliance with the JCPOA will not take away the benefits of the JCPOA,” due to Iranian advances.

The 2015 agreement was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

If the talks – set to begin on Monday involving the US, Britain, Germany, France, Russia, China and Iran – stall again, it could help President Biden and his European allies avoid a nuclear standoff erupting in the conflict. Will leave to find a way out. Help from Russia and China, who have maintained friendly relations with Iran but are wary of a new nuclear power in the Middle East. Mr Biden has said the US will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

Another wild card is Israel, which has warned it may take military action to halt Iran’s nuclear program.

The turbulent nuclear talks add to a growing list of foreign-policy problems for Biden as he approaches the end of his first year in office. Tensions with China remain high and Washington is expressing growing concerns about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine amid differences with some European capitals over an exit from Afghanistan and new security agreements with Australia and Britain.

The 2015 agreement imposed tough but temporary sanctions on Iran’s nuclear work, including reducing Tehran’s nuclear fuel stockpile and two-thirds of its centrifuges, aimed at giving Iran a year from producing enough nuclear fuel for a weapon. Have to keep away

The Biden administration hoped that a speedy resumption of the nuclear deal could avoid a crisis in the Middle East and set the stage for negotiations on a longer deal with Tehran that could deal with issues such as Iran’s ballistic missile program. The prospect of such a more comprehensive agreement now seems far-fetched.

Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, who took office last summer, is skeptical about the deal and the West. Mr Raisi launched a lengthy review of the talks and his government insisted that its priority was to build relations with China, Russia and regional powers, not a nuclear deal.

A 40-strong Iranian delegation arrived in Vienna over the weekend for talks, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdullahian saying in a video posted on Saturday that “we are serious about talks to reach an agreement.” Mr Raisi’s officials, however, gave few details about what Iran is willing to do in return for sanctions relief.

Speaking in Bahrain this month, the US special envoy to Iran, Robert Malle, warned that if Iran decided not to engage seriously in talks, the country would find itself back where it was before talks on the 2015 deal. Was. During that period, Russia and China agreed to pressure the West as well as Iran over its nuclear program.

“We’ve Known Through the Years of the Former President” [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad when Iran was diplomatically isolated, when it was under greater economic pressure and where, of course, there was greater concern about Iran’s nuclear program. This is the world we are returning to,” Mr Male said.

Estimates vary on how long it might take for Tehran to build up a weapon, with some experts saying Iran could build a primary device in a year while others say it would take two to three years.

Monday’s talks mark the latest chapter in the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the deal. Those efforts date back to April, when world powers allied with the previous Iranian government.

There were differences of opinion over how extensive the lifting of US sanctions would be, what would happen to Iran’s advanced centrifuges, and Iran’s demand that the US would not leave the agreement again. But after six rounds of talks, US, European and Iranian diplomats said they had made significant progress and a deal was possible.

Those talks stalled days after Mr. Raisi won the presidential election in June.

Western officials say they are unlikely to halt talks over the next week, even if progress is minimal. But in the absence of a breakthrough, US and European officials are grappling with a complex set of options.

They have to keep diplomacy alive while also finding a way to increase pressure on Iran.

Among the options: an attempt to strike a partial deal in which the US would provide some sanctions relief in exchange for partial sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program, similar to the 2013 interim deal with Iran. Israeli officials have warned against a partial deal, calling it a gift to Tehran.

“I don’t think the Biden team has yet worked around a specific game plan for the post-JCPOA period,” said Robert Einhorn, a former special adviser for non-proliferation at the US State Department. Any attempt to pressure Russia and China into Iran, he said, “is going to take time.”

This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed