BLast year, with the Maharashtra assembly elections, opposition parties have made several allegations about manipulations in electoral roles. Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, and others have raised the matter both inside and outside the Parliament. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has said that it is impossible to tamper with voter rolls. Two days ago, it issued instructions to ensure the special intensive amendment (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar for the assembly elections that all eligible citizens were included, without any unqualified citizens’ names, and to present full transparency in the addition of the electoral roll in the electoral role or in the process of deletion. Is voter registration subject to fraud? Praveen Chakravarti And Rangarajan R. Discuss the question in a conversation run by Shriparna chakravartiEdited Excerpt:
Mr. Chakraborty, let’s start with you. You have written and written extensively in Maharashtra assembly elections. What are your major concerns?
The Maharashtra assembly elections were held exactly six months after the Lok Sabha elections. A group of people voted in Maharashtra for the Lok Sabha elections. Six months later, while some more people can vote during the assembly elections, you do not expect the number to grow dangerous. But this is what we found. There was an increase of more than 40 lakh voters in those months. It is not a full -fledged 4 million numbers which is important. In the last five years, the total number of new voters added to Maharashtra was only 32 lakhs. So is this new growth logical?
Under what circumstances do new voters register? When ECI connects voters, 80–90% of them are either bend 18 or adults, who did not nominate earlier. Did a million and million people suddenly turn 18 in Maharashtra or decided to become new voters in only five months, while they were not found in the last five years? Who are these new voters? Where did they come from? How did he enroll? Was the documents checked? Was they verified?
Rangarajan R.: As far as electoral rolls are concerned, I agree that there may be some issues. But to say that the entire voter registration process can be cooled and can be manipulated to a large extent, pulling it slightly far away. The Hindu data team published an article after the Lok Sabha elections and before the assembly elections in 2024. He found that during 2004, 3 million new voters were added over a five -month period. In 2009, between April and October, 3 million voters were added. In 2014, between April and October, 27 lakh voters were added. Between April and November 2024, 40 lakh voters were added.
One of the reasons is that the cut-off date for enrollment could have been made of a sudden bounce, which was early 1 January, has been made quarterly. So that the growth can have a small and important role. I am not claiming that the electoral rolls are absolutely fine, but there are enough checks and balance. As someone has worked in civil services and selected, I am not for a minute saying that everything is Hunky-Dori and no improvement is required. A lot of reforms are required. Aadhaar Beeding has probably helped reduce issues in databases like PAN. There are valid concerns about the seedlings of the Danar database in the electoral roll, but perhaps there is a way forward to ensure that there are no duplicate. Incorrect inclusion is not allowed, but the big risk is that wrong exclusion may occur. And this is something that needs to be addressed carefully.
The ECI has said that it is almost impossible to tamper with the electoral rolls and asked why the Congress did not use the appeal process when the final roles for the Maharashtra assembly elections were shared. What is your response to it, Mr. Chakraborty?
Praveen Chakravarti: I think there is a lot of ideological misunderstanding around this issue. I am going to speak as a data scientist. While Mr. Rangarajan quoted The Hindu data team as saying, some figures for 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2024 properly referred to what he did not mention. All numbers have a reference. There are no trends and levels to understand big data.
In 2004, when 3 million voters were added between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in five months, do you know how many voters were added in the last five years? 61 lakh voters, twice. In 2009, when 3 million voters were added in five months, 70 million voters have been added in the last five years. In 2014, when 27 lakh new voters were added in five months, 48 lakh voters have been added in the last five years. Therefore, the statistical discrepancy I am pointing here is not 40 lakhs. This is the irrational and suspicious trend of more new voters in five months compared to five months.
In Maharashtra, the breeding level has been falling for the last two decades. This means that the total number of newborns would have reduced only every year. This also means that the number of people aged 18 would have decreased from 2004. Population may increase, but the number of people aged 18 may decrease. My simple point is that it is humanly impossible for Maharashtra that many more people in five months compared to the last five years.
About the question whether the booth-tier agents of the Congress were sleeping … Let us say that there is a theft in your house. You go to the police station to file a complaint. What if the police station turned to you and said, your security guard was sleeping, then we cannot do anything? The ECI has a constitutional responsibility to make an independent and fair election in this country. If all responsibility is outsourced for political parties, why is there an independent constitutional body? But I am not denying here that the organization of the Congress is that it should be much stronger than what it is.
Rangarajan R.: First, to give credit to the Hindu, the data team’s article mentions these growth, which Mr. Chakraborty spoke. However, I agree that if there is actually an discrepancy, the examination of a party’s organizational wing, cross-check, and file appeal failure cannot absent a constitutional right of their responsibility.
Mr. Chakraborty, you are asking to give electoral roles in the machine-elective format for both Lok Sabha and Assembly Poll. You are also demanding CCTV footage after 5 pm that voter voting has increased after that. Can you explain these demands?
Praveen Chakravarti: We are asking for this to be in digital or machine-elective format because they (ECI) can give you these scanned pictures or papers and ask you (party) to manage it.
About your second point, we are saying – and we have shown using the summary data of ECI – that is an unusual growth. We also know that there was some unusual increase in voting, now it was after 5 pm, is it or it is not the responsibility of a constitutional body to come out and preserve the trust and trust of the institution and say here that there is footage? Every time we raise a question, BJP leaders are answering. We never asked the BJP to answer. We are only asking ECI.
The ECI has said that starting with the Bihar assembly elections later this year, there will be a head of electoral roles across the country. What do you think about this?
Praveen Chakravarti: This is a silent entry by ECI that everything is not well with the electoral roll. Also, is this the right way to clean the roll? It is good as it is back and saying that we are making the voter roll modifications of the last 20 years defeated and we are just going to start AFRESH.
Rangarajan R.: In order to clean the electoral rolls of incorrect inclusion and exclusion and ensure extreme purity, a detailed physical exercise planned by ECI is required for Bihar. It may still be subject to allegations of manipulation and prejudice in favor of the ruling party. To remove such allegations, it must be done in a fair and transparent manner by giving widespread publicity. Yet this is undoubtedly the legal responsibility of the ECI, all political parties are very important stakes in this exercise, who represent a citizen. They should participate in this exercise as much as possible in this practice to ensure a strong electoral roll.
Praveen Chakraborty, Head of Data Analytics Department of Congress; Former IAS officer and author of the author Rangarajan R. Courseware simplified on politics