In the budget request of the Ministry of Defense for the fiscal year 2023, expected by the end of August, the Prime Minister fumio kishidaThe U.S. ruling party is looking to double spending in five years from this year’s 5.4 trillion yen ($39.5 billion). Outlays of that scale could move Japan from ninth in the world for military spending to third behind the US and China, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, which monitors defense spending.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s aversion to Taiwan and North Korea’s nuclear weapons have raised concerns in Japan and helped build public support for more spending. According to the World Bank, the three nuclear-armed countries, which neighboring Japan have three of the world’s largest armies, have a combined 5.5 million personnel. Japan’s military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, has approximately 231,000 personnel.
In addition to buying only pieces of hardware, Japan is under pressure to spend more on less visible items like salary increases, ammunition, spare parts and logistics.
“Probably most people think that if we double the defense budget, we’ll get a lot more equipment,” said retired Vice-Admiral Toshiyuki Ito, who is now a professor at the Kanazawa Institute of Technology. “But it’s not just a question of buying more stuff.”
China has reminded it to stake ballistic missiles that landed near Japan’s southwestern islands during military maneuvers around Taiwan this month. Kishida has warned that Taiwan is on the front line of a standoff between China and the US and that a contingency in the Taiwan Strait would have dire consequences for Japan.
Japan has traditionally kept its defense budget at around 1% of GDP, relying on the US “nuclear umbrella” to support its capabilities under a pacifist constitution. But, in an unusual move, no limit will be placed on spending requests at this point, Mainichi newspaper and other media have reported.
While the initial Defense Ministry request for fiscal 2023 would mark a relatively modest increase of 5.5 trillion yen ($40.2 billion), Kyodo News reported, the final figure is expected to be higher as unspecified costs for about 100 items are finalized. has gone.
Yomiuri said the ministry is looking at new hardware that includes advanced missiles and radar systems that can intercept rockets from China and North Korea — including hypersonic systems — and introducing unmanned aerial combat drones. The newspaper said Japan plans to have an arsenal of about 1,000 missiles that can be fired from ships and planes and reach North Korea and China.
Yomiuri explained that there will be a budget for co-development of the next generation fighter jet with the UK.
Despite her career in the SDF’s Marine Division, Ito did not see a need for more battleships. He said Tokyo must improve the pay of its troops or it would struggle to find enough pilots, even as it expanded its fleet of fighters.
If there’s more cash, Ito advocates spending it on non-traditional items like recruiting “white hat” hackers to help protect the Lightning network.
Japan’s SDF has about 16,000 fewer workers than envisaged in the budget. This shortfall is partly due to a lack of age-appropriate candidates in the world’s oldest country, but also a liberal attitude to pay, according to experts.
“Personnel management and the overall well-being of Japanese military personnel should take center stage,” said Alessio Petalano, Professor of War and Strategy in East Asia at King’s College London, who described current SDF pay and support as “simply not enough. ,
According to the Defense Ministry, a university graduate joining the military at the officer level receives a salary of about 3.6 million yen ($26,400) in the first year, which increases to 6 million by age 40. This can be supplemented by perks for hazardous postings. A US Army officer is expected to be worth around $62,000 after four years of experience.
According to Corey Wallace, an assistant professor at Kanagawa University in Yokohama, there are concerns that Japan may lack staying power, if a conflict breaks out, stockpiles of ammunition, fuel and parts as well as logistics units. should be addressed by construction.
After a policy U-turn initiated by the late Prime Minister, Japan has been gradually increasing its defense outlay over the past decade. Shinzo Abe When he came to office in 2012.
Plans for the escalation have received a positive response in opinion polls following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with almost 50% of respondents in a June poll by Jiji Press approving the escalation. Still, most were adamant on doubling the budget in the world’s most heavily indebted country.
Aurelia George Mulgan, a professor specializing in Japanese politics and regional security at the University of New South Wales, said this division over the extent of change could lead to a political deadlock. She sees a “potential fight down the road” between Kishida and her new defense minister. yasukazu hamadawho may try to keep spending under control, and hinder the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, some warn that Japan may not get the expected results, unless it is accompanied by the right diplomatic and economic policy.
“Japan cannot make itself more secure simply by increasing its defense spending,” said Naoko Aoki, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Asia Security Initiative. “Increasing Japan’s defense capabilities may seem like a threat to others in the region, prompting them to respond in kind and leave no one better off than before.”