A voter shows his inked finger after casting his vote in the Karnataka Assembly elections at a polling station in Bengaluru on Wednesday. (Image: PTI)
The Karnataka assembly elections were clearly divided into two phases, one dominated by the Congress and the other by the BJP
majority of vote It has given an edge to the Congress in Karnataka. But, the final deciding factor on results day on May 13 could be whether the Congress goes home on the momentum built up till April 26, or whether the BJP manages to swing the polls in its favor in the last fortnight before voting on Wednesday.
The Karnataka assembly elections were clearly divided into two phases, one dominated by the Congress and the other by the BJP. The first phase was before 26 April when the Congress clearly had an edge on the basis of its strong “local” campaign – it focused on the ‘40% commission’ charge and the ‘five guarantees’ it had given to the public against the BJP government. concentrated. The Congress had spent two months till April going door-to-door with its ‘guarantee card’, which promised cash assistance to women and the unemployed, 200 units of free electricity, 10 kg rice per family and free bus travel for women .
The other phase was in the last fortnight where three ‘own goals’ by the Congress set the stage for the BJP to once again enter the fray, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the narrative with his mega roadshow in Bengaluru. The first own target was on 27 April when Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge called the prime minister a “poisonous snake”. The second was on 2 May when the Congress released its manifesto and promised to ban Bajrang Dal. The third was on May 7 when the party’s official Twitter handle attributed the “sovereignty” remark to senior leader Sonia Gandhi, which she never actually said during a speech at an election rally.
local vs national
Clearly, the Congress wanted to keep the campaign local to avoid direct confrontation with Prime Minister Modi and the BJP, which wanted to nationalize the narrative through a “double engine” development pitch. This was successful until 26 April when they reached the peak of their campaign. But in the last 14 days, the BJP cashed in on the wrongdoings of the Congress and the PM brought the party back into contention with the saffron camp, realizing that it had peaked at the right time.
Kharge’s immediate remorse over his ‘poisonous snake’ remark on April 27 was an indication of the party realizing that such personal attacks on Modi ultimately backfire. The inexplicable decision to include the promise of ‘banning Bajrang Dal’ in the Congress manifesto on May 2 made Hanuman the subject of the BJP’s campaign last week. The BJP’s attacks on Modi’s roadshow in Bengaluru on May 6 and 7 and Sonia Gandhi’s alleged ‘sovereignty’ remark further enraged the party’s rank and file.
Did these so-called setbacks for the Congress in the last two weeks cost them dearly in the final picture, as the BJP believes, or had the voter already made up its mind? This may well decide the election.
North Karnataka Region
An X-factor in the election could be the major Kalyan Karnataka region, known as the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, and the Kittur Karnataka region, known as the Mumbai-Karnataka region. There are a total of 90 seats in these North Karnataka regions and some exit polls have predicted that the Congress can win big in these regions. For example, Axis polls predicted that the Congress could win 60 out of 90 seats.
The Congress is banking on Kharge, who hails from the Kalyan Karnataka region and is camping in Kalaburagi, for a whirlwind campaign. Kharge had lost his Lok Sabha seat in the region for the first time in 2019. His Dalit (SC) credentials and his presence in Gulbarga could work for the Congress.
The Mumbai-Karnataka region, which has 50 seats, has been a BJP stronghold, but senior Lingayat leaders like Jagadish Shettar from Hubli have switched to the Congress. But the BJP feels that it will retain its stronghold.
