The DMK has consolidated its position, the AIADMK is faltering, and the BJP is growing in Tamil Nadu.
The DMK has consolidated its position, the AIADMK is faltering, and the BJP is growing in Tamil Nadu.
The results of the urban body elections held in Tamil Nadu on February 19, after a gap of more than 10 years, send out several messages. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) not only maintained its dominance over its main adversary, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), but also consolidated its position. The Congress, the Left and its allies including Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi were also able to reap rich dividends. As a senior AIADMK functionary said, an important feature of the result was the manner in which the DMK and its allies demolished what was considered an impregnable fortress of the AIADMK – the western belt, from Namakkal to Coimbatore. .
There has been no respite from the lean patch that the AIADMK has been facing since the 2019 general election results. The results show the gap between DMK and AIADMK. Being the major constituent in its alliance, the DMK secured 7,698 wards out of 10,758 contested in municipal corporations, municipalities and nagar panchayats with 43.13% vote share. The AIADMK, which fielded candidates in 11,538 wards, managed to get only 2,008. Its vote share was 25.15%.
While the two Dravidian chiefs garnered the majority of the vote share, maintaining the bipolar nature of politics in TN, what is significant is that there are signs of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) becoming a significant force in the state. The BJP, facing all-out major elections in 2019 and 2021 as a junior partner of the AIADMK, was forced to go it alone after seat-sharing talks with the Dravidian chief broke down in late January. It secured 308 wards out of 5,594 wards contested with a vote share of 5.41%.
The Congress won 592 wards with an overall vote share of 3.31% and a strike rate of 42.78%, making the most of its alliance with the DMK.
Critics of the BJP say that of the 308 wards captured by the national party, 200 are in the traditional stronghold Kanyakumari district. However, a senior BJP functionary denied this, saying that his party has opened its account in the municipal corporations of Cuddalore, Chennai and Vellore in the northern region of Tamil Nadu; Thanjavur in central Tamil Nadu; and Madurai to the south. The office-bearer, who hails from the western belt, admitted that it was disappointing that the party could not win a single seat in Coimbatore, which is considered a city with considerable support for the BJP.
All the other smaller parties, which faced elections on their own, have become almost negligible. Any party – led by actor-director Seeman named Tamilar Katchi, which showed some promise by securing a vote share of 6.58% in the assembly elections; Makkal Nidhi Mayyam headed by Kamal Haasan; Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam of former MP and MLA TTV Dinakaran; Pattali Makkal Katchi; And Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam – may cross the 2% mark in terms of vote share.
The basic lesson that the AIADMK or any smaller party must learn is that forging alliances matters, even at the level of urban local bodies. He would have realized its importance at the start of the election if he had seen that despite several advantages, the ruling DMK went to the voters, retaining the coalition structure at the time of the assembly elections in April 2021.
Seeing the results, many have started speculating that the BJP is all set to expand its footprint in Tamil Nadu, which has been a tough nut for the national party. Also, what should not be overlooked is that the AIADMK, though widely beaten, has shown that it has a substantial base, which will not be very easy to break.
ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in